印度计划审查来自邻国的外商直接投资,中国企业担心这将影响他们的项目、延误他们在亚洲最赚钱的投资市场之一中的并购交易。
这些更加严格的规定并不令人惊讶,因为其他国家在新冠病毒疫情期间也在提防本国公司资产遭到贱卖,但这些规定适用于来自与印度接壤的那些国家的投资,这就有些令人不解了。
与巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、缅甸、尼泊尔和不丹等印度邻国不同,中国在印度有大量投资。
布鲁金斯学会在3月份表示,中国企业在印度的现有投资和计划投资总额超过260亿美元,而这个世界第二多人口大国正在成为从汽车到数字技术等众多行业的重要市场。
中国的长城汽车及上汽集团旗下的MG名爵都已在印度投入大量资金,中国科技业巨擘腾讯及阿里巴巴也为印度数码支付企业Paytm、在线食品杂货商BigBasket、及打车软件巨头Ola提供了成长助力。
印度的新规是为了阻止在新冠疫情期间的“投机性”收购,但政府消息人士表示,新规也适用于创建投资(greenfield investment)。中国称这些新规有“歧视”性质。
印度L&L Partners法律事务所合伙人Vaibhav Kakkar指出,一些中国投资者已经“停下脚步”,等待新规内容更加明朗。
“每个中资金主都很担心,所有政府核批可能要花上好几个月时间,”Kakkar指出,他为多家外资企业及投资者提供谘询服务。
他表示,这将影响印度许多目前急需资金以撑过新冠疫情危机的数字企业。
根据四名熟知相关想法的消息人士,MG Motor与长城汽车对这项政策及其对未来投资计划可能带来的影响感到担忧。
尽管MG Motor去年开始在印度销售汽车,但该公司尚未完全对印度进行其承诺的6.5亿美元投资。长城汽车还没开始在印度展开生产,但已于2月表示计划在未来几年投资10亿美元。
“从信心层面来看,接受的情况虽然不好,但这暂时不会改变我们的投资计划,”一名与印度的中国车企有密切合作的消息人士表示。
MG Motor与长城汽车皆未回覆置评要求。
一名直接知情的行业人士表示,印度精酿啤酒商Bira有中国投资者参与的约5,000万美元过桥融资,或因新规定而推迟。Bira并未回覆置评要求。
**反华情绪**
一名政府官员告诉路透,自该政策周末公布后,印度工业部收到几则询问,目前正在评估,但还没有决定是否进一步澄清。
新规定管辖的是与印度有陆地边界国家的实体。这类外商直接投资现在需要政府批准,这就是说不能通过所谓的自动路径;而且路透此前报导,新规也适用于来自香港的投资。
这项政策可能恶化两国之间的关系,并使印度国内在疫情爆发之前就已发酵的反华情绪进一步升温。
企业经常要对抗消费者认为中国商品质量不高的看法,新冠疫情在全球蔓延之后,这种看法愈发加深。
Swadeshi Jagran Manch(SJM)的Ashwani Mahajan对这项投资规定表示欢迎,称国内创业公司不应依赖任何中国资金,因为国内有充足的资本可以提供。SJM是一家与印度执政党接近的印度民族主义组织。
“我们甚至有更多理由反对中国,目前存在一种反对中国的普遍情绪,此外我们一直说,中国商品质量不佳,”Mahajan说。
联邦智库Niti Aayog的执行长Amitabh Kant为审查投资一事辩护,并否认这是在针对中国。
“我们从未说过要限制中国投资。他们一直是印度初创企业的重要参与者,”Kent在CNBC第18电视频道说。
Chinese investors flummoxed by India's new foreign investment rules
India’s plan to screen foreign direct investments from neighbouring countries has Chinese firms concerned that such scrutiny will affect their projects and delay deals in one of Asia’s most lucrative investment markets.
The tougher rules were not a surprise, as other countries are also on guard against fire sales of corporate assets during the coronavirus outbreak, but that they apply to investments from countries that share a land border with India raised eyebrows.
Unlike neighbouring Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal and Bhutan, China has major investments in India.
Chinese firms existing and planned investments in India stand at more than $26 billion, research group Brookings said in March, with the world’s second-most populous nation emerging as a key market for everything from automobiles to digital tech.
Chinese automakers Great Wall Motor and SAIC unit MG Motor have bet big on India while its tech giants Tencent and Alibaba have fuelled growth of Indian digital payments firms Paytm, grocer BigBasket and ride-hailing giant Ola.
The new rules are to curb “opportunistic” takeovers during the coronavirus outbreak that has hit Indian businesses, but government sources have said they will also apply to greenfield investments. China has called the rules “discriminatory”.
Some Chinese investors have already “put things on hold” as they await further clarity on the rules, said Vaibhav Kakkar of Indian law firm L&L Partners.
“Every Chinese investor is worried, any government approval could take months,” said Kakkar, who advises several foreign companies and investors.
This will affect India’s digital businesses who are in dire need of funds to tide over the coronavirus crisis, he said.
MG Motor and Great Wall are concerned about the policy and its possible implications on future investment plans, according to four sources familiar with the thinking.
While MG started selling cars in India last year, it is yet to fully invest the $650 million it has committed to India. Great Wall is yet to start production in India but said in February it plans to invest $1 billion in the coming years.
“Sentiment wise it’s not been taken well but it will not change the investment plans for now,” said one of the sources who works closely with Chinese automakers in India.
MG Motor and Great Wall did not respond to a request for comment.
Indian craft beer maker Bira’s roughly $50 million of bridge financing round that involved Chinese investors could be delayed due to the new rules, said an industry source with direct knowledge. Bira did not respond to a request for comment.
ANTI-CHINA SENTIMENT
India’s industries ministry is reviewing several queries received since the policy was made public over the weekend, but it has not been decided if further clarifications will be issued, a government official told Reuters.
The new rules govern entities located in a country that shares a land border with India. Such foreign direct investments will now require government approval, meaning they can’t go through a so-called automatic route, and will also apply on investments from Hong Kong, Reuters has reported.
The policy risks souring relations between the two nations and furthering anti-China sentiment already festering in India before the coronavirus outbreak.
Companies regularly battle consumer perception that Chinese goods are of inferior quality and those views have only worsened as the coronavirus epidemic spread from China around the world.
Welcoming the investment rules, Ashwani Mahajan of the Swadeshi Jagran Manch, a Hindu nationalist group close to India’s ruling party, said domestic startups should not rely on any Chinese funding as there was enough local capital available.
“We have even more reasons to oppose China now there is a general feeling against China, and secondly we have been saying Chinese goods are of bad quality,” said Mahajan.
Federal think tank Niti Aayog’s chief executive Amitabh Kant defended the screening of investments and rejected the notion it was targeting China.
“Nowhere have we said that we are going to constrain China’s investment. They have been a big player in India’s start-up story,” Kant told the CNBC TV18 channel.