新冠疫情在很多方面或许永久性地改变了全球的法律行业，由于目前不少律师仍处于远程办公的模式下，律所正在重新审视为其黄金地段的办公室支付每月高昂的租金是否合理，这导致律所对办公空间的需求明显下降。据多家媒体报道，伦敦最大的几家律师事务所正在考虑将办公室面积削减50%；在中国香港，国际律师事务所正离开著名的中环和湾仔，搬到租金更便宜的区域。
而情况在中国大陆则截然不同。尽管2020年初爆发的新冠疫情使律师事务所短暂地放缓了在华办公室扩张和搬迁计划，但随着疫情得到控制、商业运作回归正常，这些计划很快得以继续实施。据商业地产行业专家观察，近年来，律所办公室整体保持扩张之势，这在北京、上海等一线城市表现得尤为突出。
戴德梁行董事总经理、中国区项目及企业服务部主管魏超英先生告诉ALB：“从2019年开始至今，律师事务所在北京的办公租赁市场便呈扩张趋势。而近期北京写字楼的租金有所下调，也会触发一些律所的扩租以及一系列整合行为。上海的情况也同样较为乐观：一方面内资大型律所不断兼并小型律所，尤其在疫情后，规模随之逐步扩张。另一方面，疫情后，从业务上来看，律所在医药板块和知识产权板块的业务需求不断增加，这也促使律所业务规模不断扩张。”
除了这两个一线城市，一些新一线、二三线城市也逐渐成为律所设立办公室的热门。2020年下半年至今，不少律所进军中国东部、南部、中西部等地区，例如，天达共和律师事务所设立成都、南京办公室；万商天勤律师事务所设立海口、南京办公室；海润天睿律师事务所成立大连分所；君泽君律师事务所开设郑州分所等。
究其背后原因，魏超英表示：“从对外贸易和国内经济发展态势来看，咨询行业和法律行业将会获得更多的业务，因此会带来较快的扩张趋势。随着律所在二三线城市业务的逐渐增加，以及上游客户支付能力不断提升，更多大型律所也会考虑在业务增长较快较集中的二三线城市设立办公室。”
整体扩张趋势下的表现各异
在大型律所争相扩张办公室的同时，中小型律所则稍显保守。第一太平戴维斯中国市场研究部主管兼高级总监James Macdonald先生告诉ALB：“大型律所往往占据更有利的位置，更能抓住机会进行扩张或兼并，而一部分小型律所在疫情期间却缩减了规模。”
他还指出，在律所办公室扩张方面同样持保守态度的还有外资律所。魏超英也同意这样的看法，据他观察，目前内资所的发展呈现增长态势，而外资律所由于受到贸易战、国际关系等敏感问题所带来的诸多限制，目前没有太多扩租新租的需求。
新的趋势
2021年即将过半，魏超英观察到目前市场上律所搬迁需求较为活跃，其中原因不乏近期写字楼租金水平下探且弹性较大，律所有望获得更为满意的搬迁条款与机会。而对于未来走势，魏超英说：“由于律师事务所一般有强大的市场敏锐度，但他们决策也是相对保守的，因此未来的租赁行情趋势将根据大的市场经济环境而变化。中国的经济环境发展越来越好，法律也越来越完善，而经济需要法律的保驾护航，我们看好律所在中国市场的发展。”
Bucking the global trend, law firm demand for office space in China is actually increasing
The pandemic has likely permanently altered the legal industry globally in a number of significant ways. One of these is a drop in the need for office space; as lawyers continue to work from home at least some of the time, firms are struggling to justify the steep rent they pay each month for prime locations. In London, for example, some of the largest law firms are looking to cut office space by up to 50 percent, according to the reporting from various media earlier this year. In Hong Kong, international law firms are leaving the prestigious locations of Central and Wan Chai to move into smaller units which cost much less in rent.
However, quite the opposite is happening in mainland China, where the demand for office space has steadily risen in the past few years. While the Covid-19 pandemic did pause this somewhat, industry experts expect this to be nothing more than a minor hiccup.
This trend is especially noticeable in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai. “Law firms have been renting bigger offices in Beijing since 2019, and we expect to see more of this due to the recent drop of rental fee of office buildings,” says Jonathan Wei, managing director and head of Project & Occupier services in China at Cushman & Wakefield, a global commercial real estate services firm. “The situation in Shanghai is also looking good, mainly because, on the one hand, domestic large firms keep acquiring small firms, especially after the pandemic; on the other hand, legal demands in medical and intellectual property sectors are increasing, making law firms grow.”
Second- and third-tier cities are also becoming popular. Since the second half of 2020, a few law firms have established new offices in eastern, southern, central and western China. For example, East & Concord set up offices in Chengdu and Nanjing, V&T in Haikou and Nanjing, Hai Run Law Firm in Dalian, and JunZeJun Law Offices in Zhengzhou. Jonathan believes that an increased demand for legal services, and clients’ ability to afford them, are among the factors pulling law firms to smaller cities.
“As a result of growing foreign trade and domestic economic development, law firms will continue to expand their presence. With the gradual increase of law firms' business in second- and third-tier cities and the continuous improvement of the payment ability of clients, more large law firms are considering setting up offices in these cities, where business growth is relatively fast and concentrated,” says Jonathan.
THE BIG GROW BIGGER
But the growth in demand for office space is not expected to be even among all firms, which larger firms leading the way. In comparison, small and medium-sized firms are slightly more conservative when it comes to expansion. “Larger firms seem to be in a better position and are seizing the opportunity to explore organic and acquisition led growth, whereas a handful of smaller specialist firms downsized during the pandemic,” says James Macdonald, head and senior director of research at Savills China, who adds that foreign law firms are equally conservative. Jonathan agrees with that latter point, noting that issues like the trade war and rocky relationships between China and certain foreign countries have resulted foreign law firms showing less interest in renting more office space.
Still, as we reach the halfway point of 2021, Jonathan expects the trend of expansion to continue for the time being, particularly as a result of the slight decrease in rents as mentioned above. But he is also optimistic for the long term. “Law firms are very sensitive to market trends; at the meantime their decisions usually tend to be conservative and careful,” says Jonathan. “Therefore, the future of law firms’ office renting and moving largely depends on the macroeconomic environment. The better China’s economy develops, the more optimized the legal system will become. We see a bright future of law firms’ development in China because business always needs the guarding of legal.”
To contact the editorial team, please email ALBEditor@thomsonreuters.com.