Encouraged by a shale boom in the U.S., China has launched its own shale gas initiatives since 2009. It aims to produce 6.5 billion cubic metres of the gas by the end of 2015, and a whopping 60 to 100 billion cubic metres by 2020. As part of this push, Beijing has held two auction rounds for the gas, and a potential third round is on the cards. Government departments are also working to implement beneficial policies, such as tax and financial incentives, to encourage shale gas development. But a lack of experience in exploiting the gas among the 16 firms awarded exploration rights in the latest auction is likely to hinder development.

China is believed to be sitting on the world’s largest deposits of shale gas, with an estimated 1,275 trillion cubic feet (36 trillion cubic metres) of technically recoverable shale gas reserves. Seeking to kick-start a shale boom of its own, the government introduced its first shale auction in July 2011, which was quickly followed by a second round in September 2012. Bidding in the first auction was dominated by large Chinese state-owned energy companies, including CNOOC and PetroChina, while the second auction lured more than 100 companies. In an effort to open up the shale gas industry to a wider range of players, Beijing encouraged both private Chinese companies and Sino-foreign joint ventures to place bids in the second auction. Energy experts comment that the eclectic mix of bidders in the second auction reflects the mounting interest in China’s shale gas sector. The 16 winning firms of the second auction consist of six state-run utility and coal firms (including Huadian Group, Shenhua Coal Group and China Coal Group), eight energy investment firms freshly formed under the auspice of local governments, and two little-known private firms, including Huaying Shanxi Energy Investment Co, owned by Shanghai-listed coal miner Wintime Energy.

A lack of experience

Despite growing demand for China’s shale gas, industry experts have serious concerns over the lack of technological experience among interested firms. Out of the 16 companies awarded exploration rights in the second auction, not one has drilled a gas well before. As a result, the auction winners will have to buy in the expertise they lack.  “They will have received very little data about the blocks, will have very little idea about what it is going to cost them to do exploration wells, and no idea about development costs,” said Singapore-based Tony Regan of Tri-Zen Consultancy, which advises gas companies doing business in China, to Reuters.

Xiao Yong, the head of Vinson & Elkins’ China practice, agrees: “I do not think the companies have much experience or ability to drill. It is more of a commercial incentive for them - they are hoping that in the future there will be increased demand for shale gas in China. So, if they can get involved in the industry and win a bid, they can then look to join together with foreign parties.”

On the other hand, the technological roadblock presents the prospect of lucrative contracts for specialist foreign firms such as Schlumberger or Halliburton for the “fracking” (hydraulic fracturing) technology to extract the gas. The lure of multibillion dollar drilling contracts has already enticed U.S. companies to invest in Chinese counterparts. Schlumberger bought a 20.1 percent stake in Hong Kong-listed Anton Oilfield Services Group for about $80 million in 2012, while Halliburton formed a strategic alliance with China’s SPT Energy Group Inc to provide drilling operations.

Other challenges remain in the form of more complex geology and a scarcity of water. Energy analysts in China have questioned the quality of the shale gas blocks offered in the second auction, stating that they are located in areas with a very complicated geology. Indeed, China’s shale gas deposits are mostly found deeper underground than in the U.S. and reserves are more dispersed. In addition, water shortages for fracking in gas basins in China where the shale is located is another serious obstacle. A shale well in the U.S. typically requires 8 to 10 million gallons of water. But in China, that rises to 10 to 13 million gallons because of the geology, reports Reuters.

Cushioning the blow

Both challenges create greater risk and higher exploration and drilling costs for the auction winners, especially given their limited expertise in the shale industry. The cost of drilling a single shale gas well in China ranges from $5 million to $12 million, compared to the average cost per well of $2.7 million to $3.7 million in the United States, according to a report by Norton Rose.

Furthermore, progress among the big Chinese state-owned oil firms has also been slow. PetroChina and Sinopec Corp had drilled more than 60 shale wells by May 2012, but PetroChina had produced just a little over 11 million cubic metres in its most promising area by November last year. Meanwhile, U.S. shale production in 2011 rose to 240 billion cubic metres, according to Reuters.

To encourage investment and cushion the impact of high shale exploration and drilling costs, Beijing is considering putting in place several tax incentives and financial subsidies. “The government is trying to open the door for private companies and small- and medium-sized enterprises to get involved in shale gas,” says Xiao Yong. One suggested policy is for the government to make initial investments alongside companies during the exploration stage, which will then be repaid to the government once the companies become profitable. However, lawyers note that while an incentive policy has been discussed, nothing concrete has yet been finalised.

Round three?

Nonetheless, China is racing ahead to open up its shale gas sector to a broader investor base. including more small- and medium-sized enterprises and foreign firms. It is speculated that Beijing is planning to hold a third shale gas auction by as early as the end of this year. For the first two auctions, only Chinese companies and Sino-foreign joint ventures were allowed to place a bid. If the third round does take place, it will be interesting to see whether the government will allow foreign companies to directly participate in the bidding, says Xiao Yong. He also urges the government not to rush into the third auction, suggesting that it should first put in place clearer incentive policies as well as legal regulation. “Right now a lot of policies are still waiting to be clarified, and the industry does not know what the legal regime will be like in the future. We hope things will be clearer this year, or even during the third round, so our clients can feel more comfortable about investing,” says Xiao Yong.

Indeed, there is no doubt that the legal and regulatory shroud that surrounds China’s shale gas sector is a cause for concern among both domestic and international players. Shale gas is fast emerging as a lucrative sector in China’s developing energy market, but the government will have to provide clear regulation and incentives to help overcome the technological, environmental and regulatory roadblocks that investors face. “Shale gas will become increasingly important over the next few years,” says Xiao Yong. “If Beijing can develop a clear policy and regulatory regime, it will really benefit the development of China’s shale gas sector.”

Will shale gas decimate China’s toy makers?

By Clyde Russell at Reuters

Such is the impact of the shale gas revolution in the United States that it's quite possible that babies born today will no longer play with plastic dolls and cars made in China.

It's almost become a fait accompli that China is the world's factory, but the early warning signs that this may be changing are starting to show. The advent of cheap natural gas in the U.S. is threatening to displace expensive naphtha in the production of petrochemicals, the key building blocks for plastics, synthetic fibres and solvents and cleaners.

While the shale gas boom is certainly no longer a secret, up to now its main impact has been in displacing coal in power generation in the U.S., and making inroads as both a heating and transport fuel. While the U.S. is planning to export some of its shale bounty as liquefied natural gas, in effect it is already exporting more energy in the form of coal, which has helped keep Asian prices soft even in the face of record Chinese and Indian imports.

The same sort of dynamic is likely to start hitting the Asian petrochemical sector in the next few years, as U.S. output ramps up on the back of cheap natural gas and producers from India to China struggle to compete given their reliance on oil-derived naphtha. Sinopec Corp, Asia's largest refiner, admitted that it has been caught off guard by the advent of U.S. competitors using cheaper feedstock. "This is something we did not expect before," Wang Tianpu, Sinopec's vice-chairman and president, said on Mar. 25 at a briefing to announce the company's results, which saw a 12.8 percent slump in profits in 2012 from the year earlier.

Sinopec will strive to lower its petrochemical costs by using less naphtha and optimising the product mix, Wang said. The problem for Sinopec, and other Asian producers, is that while this may help at the margins, it's not going to be enough to meet the threat of cheaper U.S. petrochemicals.

While shale gas may become available in China, wide-scale production is still several years away and is unlikely to be as cheap as U.S. supplies anyway.

There is the possibility of cheaper LNG, but even this is unlikely as the market for the super-chilled gas is expected to remain tight for the next few years, even allowing for relatively small amounts of U.S. exports. This means the existing major producers supplying Asia, namely Qatar, Australia, Malaysia and Indonesia, are still going to be able to charge oil-linked prices for LNG, meaning it will be no cheaper than naphtha as a feedstock for chemicals.

There is also the option of using gas liquids such as propane and butane as a feedstock, but these are also derived from crude production and are priced accordingly.

The prospect of coal gasification also holds promise, but even if this were to prove economically viable, which is by no means certain, it will take at least a decade to build any plants of sufficient scale to displace naphtha. Which means Asian petrochemical producers are stuck with naphtha for the foreseeable future. Benchmark Tokyo naphtha closed at $938 a tonne on Mar. 27, and although the price has eased in recent weeks, it is 284 percent higher than the low reached in November 2008 during the global recession.

In contrast, natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed on Mar. 27 this year at $4.068 per million British thermal units, down about 43 percent from November 2008. Naphtha has also managed to maintain its premium to Brent crude in a fairly narrow range since the 2008 financial crisis, and is currently around the mid-point at $120.65 a tonne.

What this shows is the enormous advantage natural gas users in the U.S. are getting compared to Asian petrochemical producers. It's little wonder that Dow Chemical, the largest U.S. chemical maker, announced Mar. 18 it intends to build several plants on the Gulf of Mexico using shale gas as a feedstock. It joins Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell and others in expanding capacity in the U.S. as they bet cheap natural gas is here to stay.

Of course, ultimately it won't just be Asian petrochemical producers that suffer; it will be the downstream industries that use plastics and fibres as well. For items that are mainly plastic, such as children’s toys, it isn't a stretch to see U.S.-based factories once again becoming cost competitive with China.

肖勇，文森•艾尔斯

<标题> 转向页岩气？

正如近期的尚德事件所反映的，在有关可再生能源行业的担忧不断加剧的背景下，位于大中华地区的可再生能源公司正被繁重的债务所困。中国虽然能够在短期内依赖煤炭来满足其能源需求，但它正寻求仿效美国的做法，并已开始进军页岩气领域。然而，一些技术、环境和监管方面的挑战却成为前进道路上的障碍。Kanishk Verghese报道

路透社陈爱珠补充报道 

受到美国页岩气热潮的激励，中国自2009年起推出了自己的页岩气开发计划。其目标是在2015年底前产出65亿立方米的页岩气，并在2020年之前产出600亿至1000亿立方米的巨量页岩气。作为该行动的一部分，中国政府已举行了两轮页岩气招标，第三轮招标亦有望在近期启动。政府部门还正努力推出优惠政策，如财税优惠等，以鼓励页岩气的开发。但是，在最近一轮招标中获得探矿权的16家企业均缺乏开采页岩气的经验，这可能将阻碍页岩气的发展。

中国据信坐拥着世界上最大的页岩气矿藏，技术可采的页岩气储量预计为1,275万亿立方英尺（36万亿立方米）。由于希望启动本国的页岩气热潮，中国政府于2011年7月进行了首次页岩气招标，随后很快又在2012年9月进行了第二轮招标。第一轮招标的投标者主要为中国大型国有能源企业，包括中海油和中石油，第二轮招标则吸引了超过100家企业的参与。为了向范围更广泛的业者开放页岩气行业，中国政府在第二轮招标中鼓励中国私营企业和中外合资企业投标。能源专家评论称，在第二轮招标中投标人的大杂烩反映了各界对中国页岩气行业的兴趣正不断升温。第二轮招标的16家中标企业包括6家国营公用事业和煤炭企业（包括华电集团、神华煤业集团和中煤集团）、8家在地方政府支持下新成立的能源投资企业、以及2家鲜为人知的私营企业，包括由在上证所上市的煤炭开采公司永泰能源所有的华瀛山西能源投资有限公司。

经验匮乏

尽管对中国页岩气的需求不断上升，行业专家对感兴趣的企业缺乏技术经验的情况深感忧虑。在第二轮招标中获得探矿权的16家企业中，没有一家此前曾钻探过气井。因此，中标企业将不得不购买它们所缺少的专门技术。“它们获得的钻区信息很少，对勘探气井所需的各类成本也知之甚少，并且对开发成本毫无概念。”Tri-Zen Consultancy常驻新加坡的Tony Regan向路透社表示。Tri-Zen Consultancy为在中国开展业务的天然气公司提供咨询服务。

文森•艾尔斯的合伙人肖勇对此表示赞同：“我并不认为这些公司在钻探方面有丰富的经验或强大的实力。它们更多的是出于商业动机——它们希望中国的页岩气需求在未来会增加。所以，如果它们能进入该行业并成功中标，它们就能和外国公司一起加入到开发页岩气的行列中。”

另一方面，技术障碍使得斯伦贝谢、哈里伯顿等外国专业公司有望就使用“水力压裂技术”开采页岩气获得利润丰厚的合同。动辄数十亿美元的钻探合同，已经促使不少美国公司对中国同业进行了投资。斯伦贝谢于2012年以约8000万美元收购了香港上市的安东油田服务集团的20.1%股权，而哈里伯顿与中国的华油能源集团有限公司达成了战略联盟以进行钻探作业。

中国复杂的地质条件和水资源的稀缺也给页岩气开发带来了其他挑战。中国的能源分析师对第二轮招标中的页岩气区块的质量存在质疑，认为这些区块所在地点的地质条件极其复杂。事实上，中国的页岩气矿藏大多比美国更加深入地下，分布也更加分散。此外，在中国含页岩气的盆地，缺乏用于水力压裂的水资源构成了另一个重大障碍。在美国挖掘一口页岩气井一般需要800万至1000万加仑的水。但根据路透社的报道，在中国，由于复杂的地质条件，这将需要1000万至1300万加仑的水。

缓和成本冲击

上述两项挑战均对中标企业带来了较大的风险以及较高的勘探和钻探成本，特别是这些企业拥有的页岩行业专业技术又十分有限。根据诺顿罗氏的报告，在中国钻探一口页岩气井的成本为500万至1200万美元，而在美国，每口井的平均成本仅为270万至370万美元。

此外，中国大型国有石油企业的相关进展亦相当缓慢。截至2012年5月，中石油和中石化已钻探了60多口页岩气井，但到去年11月，中石油在其最具开采潜力的地区仅产出略高于1100万立方米的页岩气。与此同时，据路透社的报道，美国的页岩气产量在2011年升至2400亿立方米。

为了鼓励投资，并缓和高昂的页岩气勘探和钻探成本带来的影响，中国政府正考虑实施数项税收优惠和财政补贴政策。肖勇称：“政府正试图向私营企业和中小企业打开大门，允许它们涉足页岩气业务。”在此方面的一个政策建议是由政府在勘探阶段与企业共同进行初始投资，其出资将在企业实现盈利后予以偿还。但是，律师们注意到，虽然对激励政策进行了颇多讨论，但尚无任何实质性的成果。

第三轮招标？

尽管如此，中国还在继续加速向范围更广泛的投资者群体开放其页岩气行业，包括更多中小企业和外国公司。据猜测，中国政府计划最早在今年年底进行第三轮页岩气招标。在前两轮招标中，仅中国企业和中外合资企业可以投标。肖勇表示，若第三轮招标启动，政府是否会允许外国公司直接参与竞标，将值得关注。肖勇还希望政府不要急于进行第三轮招标，并建议其应首先制定更明确的激励政策和监管法规。“目前，许多政策仍有待澄清，我们也不清楚该行业未来的法律体制将会如何。我们希望相关问题能在今年，或甚至在第三轮招标期间明朗化，这样我们的客户才能够更安心地投资。”肖勇说道。

毫无疑问，围绕中国页岩气行业的法律和监管疑云正是国内和国际业者的担忧之一。页岩气正快速成为中国不断发展的能源市场中的一个利润丰厚的领域，但政府必须对此出台明确的监管规定和激励政策，以帮助投资者克服面临的技术、环境和监管障碍。“页岩气将在未来几年中变得日益重要。”肖勇称，“如果中央政府能够有明确的政策和监管体制，其将真正有益于中国页岩气行业的发展。”

页岩气会否“屠杀”中国玩具生产商？

作者：Clyde Russell，路透社

美国的页岩气革命带来了颠覆性的影响，很可能使得如今的新生婴儿在未来不会再玩中国制造的塑料娃娃和塑料汽车。

虽然中国世界工厂的地位看似毋庸置疑，但这一形势可能转变的早期警讯已然出现。廉价天然气在美国的崛起，正威胁将取代成本高昂的石脑油（naphtha）在石化产品生产中的地位，而石脑油目前是塑料、合成纤维、溶剂和清洁剂的主要生产原料。

虽然页岩气热潮早就不是秘密，但目前为止，其主要影响仅限于取代煤炭在美国的发电原料地位，以及成为取暖和运输燃料。尽管美国正计划以液化天然气的形式出口一部分其丰富的页岩气资源，但实际上该国已经以煤炭的形式出口了更多能源，使得在中国和印度进口量创纪录的背景下，亚洲煤炭价格仍然保持疲软。

在今后几年中，同样的命运可能将降临到亚洲石化行业身上，原因是美国的石化产品在廉价天然气的支持下不断增产，而印度和中国的石化生产商由于依赖提炼自石油的石脑油，而难与美国业者抗衡。亚洲最大的炼油商中石化承认，美国竞争对手因使用成本较低廉的原料而崛起的局面，令其感到猝不及防。“这是我们过去没有料想到的。”中石化副董事长兼总裁王天普在3月25日公司业绩发布会上表示。中石化2012年利润较上年下滑12.8%。

王天普表示，中石化将努力通过减少对石脑油的使用并优化其产品结构的方式，降低石化产品的成本。中石化和其他亚洲生产商面临的难题是，虽然这么做可以提升利润率，但不足以化解来自美国廉价石化产品的威胁。

尽管页岩气未来也可能将在中国投入使用，但距大规模生产仍有好几年时间，并且也不太可能像美国那样便宜。

虽然液化天然气的价格可能降低，但这种可能性也不大，因为即使算上美国的少量出口，未来几年这一超冷液化天然气的市场料仍将保持紧俏。这意味着，目前供应亚洲的主要生产国，即卡塔尔、澳大利亚、马来西亚和印尼，仍将能以油价为指标对液化天然气定价。也就是说液化天然气在作为化工产品的原料方面，不会比石脑油来的便宜。

另外也可以选择使用丙烷和丁烷等液化石油气作为原料，不过这些同样提炼自原油，所以其定价也与油价挂钩。

煤炭气化也具潜力，但就算证明这在经济上是可行性的，仍需至少十年时间才能建造好相关工厂，以提供足以替代石脑油的产能，更不要说其经济可行性目前还是未知数。由此得出的结论是，亚洲的石化生产商在可预见的未来仍不得不继续使用石脑油。基准东京石脑油价上月收报938美元/吨，虽然价格在最近几周有所回落，但仍比2008年11月全球经济衰退期间触及的低点高出284%。

相形之下，纽约商品期货交易所天然气期货在3月27日收报4.068美元/百万英热单位，较2008年11月下跌约43%。石脑油对布伦特原油的溢价自2008年金融危机以来一直维持在较窄的区间内，目前位于区间中点120.65美元/吨附近。

这显示了使用天然气的美国石化产品生产商与亚洲业者相比，具有巨大的优势。这也难怪美国最大的化学品制造商陶氏化学在3月18日宣布，计划在墨西哥湾建造多家使用页岩气作为原料的工厂。由于预期今后将有便宜的天然气可用，陶氏化学与埃克森美孚、皇家荷兰壳牌等公司纷纷在美国扩大产能。

当然，亚洲的石化生产商不会是最终唯一的受害者，还有使用塑料和纤维的下游行业。对于儿童玩具等以塑料作为主要原料的产品，美国工厂再度拥有可与中国比拟的成本竞争力，似乎不再遥远了。

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