By Langi Chiang and Jonathan Standing

China's GDP growth slowed in the second quarter to 7.5 percent year-on-year as weak overseas demand weighed on output and investment, lining up a test of Beijing's resolve to revamp the world's second-biggest economy in the face of deteriorating data.

Other figures showed industrial output in June rising slightly less than forecast compared with a year earlier, but retail sales increasing more than had been expected.

The latest year-on-year economic growth reading compared with the median forecast in a Reuters poll of 7.5 percent and showed the pace of economic activity easing from 7.7 percent annual growth between January to March.

"These figures are not surprising, adding to signs of downward pressure on China's economy," said Zhou Hao, an economist at ANZ Bank in Shanghai.

The Australian dollar, which is highly sensitive to Chinese demand for Australian raw materials, rose on relief the GDP numbers were not weaker, following last week's report of a surprise fall in exports in June from a year earlier.

China's statistics bureau said the economy's performance in the first half of the year was stable overall and that indicators were within a reasonable range.

New Premier Li Keqiang has been prominent in pushing for economic reform over fast-line growth, suggesting the government is in no rush to offer fresh stimulus to revive an economy in a protracted slowdown.

With the latest GDP data, China's growth has slowed down in nine of the last 10 quarters.

The government's official growth target for 2013 is 7.5 percent, impressive by world standards but it would be the slowest pace in 23 years for China.

The latest data showed the economy grew 7.6 percent in the first half of the year from a year earlier, just ahead of the full-year target.

Analysts have cut their forecasts for 2013 full-year growth in recent weeks following a run of weak data and government comments on slowing growth. Ahead of Monday's economic figures, they were mostly forecasting 2013 growth between 7 and 7.5 percent.

Last week, customs data showed China's exports fell 3.1 percent in June against forecasts for a rise of 4 percent, while imports dipped 0.7 percent versus an expected 8.0 percent rise. The customs administration added that the outlook for July to September was "grim."

Other figures had shown factory-gate deflation persisted for a 16th straight month, backing the view that the economy, plagued by industrial overcapacity, is losing momentum.

Annual consumer inflation accelerated more than expected in June, but remained subdued at 2.7 percent, below Beijing's annual target of 3.5 percent.

The main worry for China's leaders is if the economic slowdown leads to high unemployment that could spark social unrest. So far government officials say employment is stable.

So for now, economists do not see any major stimulus or policy shift and instead expect the government to tough out the slowdown as they pursue a longer-term vision of reforming the economy towards consumer-led, rather than export- and investment-led growth.

Beijing is still cleaning up trillions of dollars in local government debt left over from its last spending spree during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, while trying to rein in off-balance-sheet loans.

"The focus is still on reforms. The chances of a cut in interest rates or banks' reserve ratio look slim," Xu Hongcai, senior economist at the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges (CCIEE), a think-tank in Beijing, said before the release of the GDP data.

"Previously, when the economy was not good, local officials held out their hands for money from the central government. But now they have to embrace reforms as no money will be given."

中国二季度GDP增速续降至7.5%

中国二季度经济增速毫无悬念再降至7.5%，已然齐平政府年初设定的全年目标。展望下半年经济下行压力依然严峻，但在决策层一系列稳增长举措支撑下失速概率很小，未来底部波动仍是主要特征。

为了守住经济增长的底线，中国近期已经出台诸如加快棚户区改造、促进信息消费等举措。而考虑到目前货币供应量仍属宽松，未来货币政策大幅调整可能性不大，保持稳定将是首选；同时，也需要加快改革来释放增长潜力。

中国国家信息中心宏观经济研究室主任牛犁评价称，数据与此前预期基本一致，经济总体仍处于平稳状态，投资平稳，工业增幅低于预期，能拉动GDP保持在目前水准的消费功不可没。从总体情况看，实体经济压力仍然较大，这与诸多领域产能过剩，企业投资意愿不强有关。而目前政策的重点也是在改革方面。

“对于下半年的预期，受基数影响以及目前扩大内需政策的逐渐见效，估计三季度会有所回升，”他说，“政策方面估计不会有太大动作，主要落点仍在扩大内需刺激消费以及支持战略新兴产业，节能环保等方面。”

中国国家统计局周一公布，二季度经济增速续降至7.5%，整个上半年增速为7.6%，愈发逼近年初设定的全年目标水准7.5%附近；此外6月规模以上工业增加值同比增长仅有8.9%，社会消费品零售总额增长13.3%；1-6月固定资产投资增速为20.1%。

“中国经济后期仍有保持平稳较快增长的条件和潜力，完成今年的发展目标应该是没有问题的，”国家统计局新闻发言人盛来运稍早在新闻发布会上称。

交通银行金融研究中心高级宏观分析师唐建伟也指出，增长数字和预期是一致的，但内外需求不振导致增长还是比较乏力，投资增速在放缓，消费实际增速和去年同期比还是下降挺多，出口数据挤掉水分之后上半年也挺惨的，三驾马车动力都在减弱，使得上半年经济连续二个季度放缓。

展望下半年，他认为，内需恢复动力不足，下半年经济仍面临下行压力，三四季度增速可能还会回落。不过近期高层已经释放信号要避免经济和就业滑出下限，并一再强调要促进内需如加快棚户区改造等，在调结构和稳增长之间寻求平衡。

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