由于中美贸易战升级以及海外对中国企业加强监管审查影响了对海外并购交易的需求，2019年中国的海外并购活动是十年来最疲弱的一年。
路孚特(Refinitiv)的数据显示，中国收购方今年宣布了410亿美元的海外并购交易，金额比2018年减少了近一半，不到2016年峰值的五分之一，仅略高于金融危机过后交易活动锐减的2009年。
2019年，中资企业在美国的并购交易额比去年下降了80%，降至20亿美元。
这一年，负责审查外国收购方潜在国家安全风险的美国外资审议委员会(CFIUS)开始对并购交易进行回溯审查。这导致中国的昆仑万维(300418.SZ)因存在数据安全疑虑而寻求卖掉同志约会交友平台Grindr。
“中国投资人的最大担忧是潜在的地缘政治阻力，”英国富而德律师事务所驻北京的公司与并购合伙人沈育欣表示。“除非有令人信服的理由，否则中国投资人最近对美国资产不会有太大兴趣。”
由于经济增长放缓而且资本管控仍然很严，以往大举借债进行海外收购的中国公司现在面临降低债务的压力。
国际评级机构--惠誉评级中国企业研究董事黄筱婷周二表示，以发行人的数量衡量，中国民企债券违约率从2014年的0.6%攀升至2019年前11个月4.9%的新高。资本管控也使得内地公司很难偿还海外债务。
曾是中国海外并购冠军的海航集团一直在出售资产偿还债务。近几年收购了一系列海外时尚品牌的如意集团(002193.SZ)因收购积累了高额债务，现在也在苦于为债务再融资。
总体而言，全球范围内涉及亚太企业的交易规模从2018年的1.4万亿美元降至1.06万亿美元。
银行人士预计，中国国有企业2020年将在交易中扮演重要角色，这些企业对矿业和基础设施等传统行业有兴趣。
银行人士表示，跨国公司撤资、企业重组，这些因素也可能促成更多中国国内的交易。
“中国最大的问题是不确定性，这导致投资者不愿作出重大承诺，导致资产难以定价，”贝恩资本董事总经理竺稼(Jonathan Zhu)说。“2020年，我们可能会看到更多中国国内驱动的并购活动，但跨境交易将减少。”
China outbound M&A plummets to 10-year low on trade tensions, economic slowdown
China’s outbound mergers and acquisitions (M&As) clocked their weakest year in a decade in 2019, as an escalated U.S.-China trade war and tightened regulatory scrutiny of Chinese companies impacted appetite for overseas dealmaking.
Chinese acquirers announced $41 billion in outbound deals this year, nearly halving from 2018 and less than a fifth of the 2016 peak, showed data from Refinitiv. The number was only slightly higher than 2009 when dealmaking plunged after the financial crisis.
Outbound deals into the United States dropped 80% this year from last to $2 billion.
The fall came in a year in which the U.S. Committee on Foreign Investment, which reviews deals by foreign acquirers for potential national security risks, started to retrospectively review deals. That led to Chinese firm Kunlun selling gay dating app Grindr due to fears surrounding data security.
“The top concern of Chinese investors is potential geopolitical pushback,” said Yuxin Shen, a Beijing-based M&A partner at law firm Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer. “Unless there is a compelling reason, we don’t see much Chinese interest in U.S. assets these days.”
At home, Chinese companies - which used to borrow heavily to fund overseas purchases - are under pressure to cut debt as economic growth slows and capital controls remain tight.
Fitch Ratings in December said a record 4.9% of private issuers of onshore bonds had defaulted on payments in the first 11 months of 2019. Capital controls have also made it difficult for mainland firms to pay off offshore debt.
HNA Group, once China’s dealmaking champion, has been shedding assets to pay off debt, while Shandong Ruyi Woolen Garment Group, which bought a series of overseas fashion brands in recent years, is also struggling to refinance debt piled up from acquisitions.
Overall, deals involving Asia-Pacific firms worldwide fell to $1.06 trillion from $1.4 trillion in 2018.
Bankers expect Chinese state-owned companies to play a major role in dealmaking next year, with interest seen in traditional sectors such as mining and infrastructure.
Divestment by multi-national companies and corporate restructuring could also bring more deals within China, bankers said.
“The biggest issue in China is uncertainty which makes investors reluctant to make big commitments and assets hard to price,” said Jonathan Zhu, a managing director at buyout firm Bain Capital. “We will likely see more domestically driven M&A activities in China next year, but fewer cross-border deals.”
