支持减免债务以帮助世界上最穷、负债累累的国家的呼声正在增加，其中大多数在非洲，而且现在还面临新冠疫情造成的经济破坏。但是有一个大问号：中国。
分析人士说，20年来的积极放贷让中国成了非洲的主要债权国之一，包括核销在内的任何全面减免债务协议，都会要求北京发挥带头作用并承担损失。
“中国坐到了驾驶席上，”华盛顿智库全球发展中心(CGD)的高级研究员Scott Morris表示。“但这将要求债权人忍受真正的痛苦，我不确定他们是否已经同意那么做。”
两位知情人士告诉路透，北京很可能会同意暂时冻结非洲国家的债务支付，作为G20本周预期达成的协议的一部分。
分析师称，债务减免显然就是下一步，但中国不太可能在这类举措上扮演领头羊，尽管这是个擦亮其软实力招牌的潜在机会。
中国外交部在回复路透询问的传真中表示，长期以来，中方本着负责任态度同非洲国家开展投融资合作，支持非洲国家加快工业化进程和实现自主可持续发展，取得显著成效，也极大改善了非洲国家营商环境。
“非洲债务问题成因复杂，各国债务情况各异。我们注意到有个别国家和国际组织提出为非洲国家减债，愿与国际社会予以研究”，外交部称。
中国国家国际发展合作署暂未回应路透置评请求。
和以往债务减免的主要西方国家不同，中国在非洲的债务很多都附带有商业条款。根据国际货币组织(IMF)数据，中国本身也仍是新兴经济体，2019年人均收入为10,153美元，低于前七大主要经济体的人均收入45,447美元。
“中国势力仍在增长，一直到最近...才成为非洲主要财务伙伴，”英国智库海外发展研究所(ODI)的Yunnan Chen表示。
“其投资也需要获得财务及经济回报。我们极不可能见到对大量贷款的直接免除。”
由于经济预计将出现30年来的首次萎缩，中国暗示除了与债务问题严重的伙伴国家进行双边磋商外，无意另有动作。
中国社科院金融政策研究中心主任何海峰表示，任何债务减免请求都不能不经具体分析就做出回复，某些请求可能带来道德风险。
分析师表示，那些看到本国经济面临衰退的富裕国家政府如果认为自己的资金会间接支持中国的债权人地位，就不大可能在债务减免的问题上投入大量资源。
**需要紧急援助**
目前全球新冠肺炎感染人数超过170万人，非洲只占很小一部分，约为1.25万人。
虽然如此，石油和大宗商品价格暴跌以及本币贬值，让非洲国家受到的冲击就远非这么不值一提了。
非洲国家经济今年预计将大幅萎缩，可能有2,000万人失业。
IMF和世界银行马上采取措施，争取让这些全球最贫穷的国家延期偿还所欠双边债务。
上周，IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃称，中国正在“有建设性地”处理该问题。一位中国官员对路透表示，北京方面愿意在双边基础上与借款国一道努力，并同意部分国家不应被迫在危机期间偿还债务。
目前IMF并没有推动一项全面倡议，但有专家表示，想要那么做，暂停还款是第一步。
非洲国家的财长们在呼吁拿出规模1000亿美元的刺激措施，其中440亿美元可以通过停止还债获得，这包括双边、多边或商业债务。他们希望非洲最穷国家的部分债务能被免除，余下的债务转换为长期低息贷款。
专家表示，这真是狮子大开口。
**没有大动作**
据约翰.霍普金斯大学的数据，2000-2017年期间，中国政府、银行和企业向非洲提供了约1430亿美元资金，其中大部分用于大规模的基建项目。根据估算，中国目前给非洲的贷款比世界银行对非洲的贷款还要多。
ODI估计，中国的贷款占到肯尼亚外债的33%，占到埃塞俄比亚及尼日利亚外债的17%及10%。
中国贷款的条件大多相当优惠，不过本月稍早CGD公布的一份研究发现这些贷款的条件要严于世界银行，尤其是对特别穷困的国家。
中国贷款机构提供的优惠较少，贷款宽限期较短，加权平均利率较高，达4.14%，世界银行仅为2.1%。
尽管中国高调宣传在非洲协助对抗疫情，包括亿万富翁马云对非洲发出多批的医疗物资，但债务方面一直没有减免的暗示。
对于陷入困境的借款人，中国想来采取合作态度，但其目的通常是为了缓解短期压力，确保最终还款。
总部位于纽约的研究公司荣鼎谘询(Rhodium Group)分析了中国与其借款国最近的一些谈判，去年发现债务减免相对普遍，但涉及的金额通常较小，而且伴随着大量追加贷款。
例如，中国在2017年减记了苏丹1.6亿美元债务，占其估算债务总额65亿美元的2.5%。
加纳财长Ken Ofori-Atta上周表示，中国需要做得更多。中国外交部发言人表示，中国愿通过双边渠道同有关国家保持沟通。
专家们表示，中国的临时措施在当前危机中无法奏效，但一项涉及所有债权国的协调行动将要求北京方面公开账簿，而这是中国政府一再抵制的。
特朗普政府过去曾表示，鉴于非洲从中国大举借债，该国不愿支持广泛的债务减免。
美国官员没有回应记者的置评请求。
美国目前缺席这场对话，留下了一个领导真空。分析人士表示，如果美国认为北京在该进程中的影响力过大，将可能会感到恼火。
“我担心，即使中国认为这是一个争夺领导权的机会并加以利用，美国则有可能一走了之，”CGD的Morris说。
China in the driver's seat amid calls for Africa debt relief
Support is growing for debt relief to help the world’s poorest, indebted nations - most of them in Africa - confront the economic havoc wreaked by COVID-19. But there is one big question mark: China.
A two-decade lending spree has propelled China to the top of Africa’s creditor list and any comprehensive debt deal, including write-offs, would require Beijing to take a leading role and swallow losses, analysts say.
“China is in the driver’s seat,” said Scott Morris, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development (CGD), a Washington think-tank. “But this is going to require real pain for creditors, and I’m not sure they’ve come to terms with that.”
Beijing is likely to endorse a temporary freeze on debt payments by African countries as part of an expected agreement by the Group of 20 (G20) major economies this week, two sources familiar with the process told Reuters.
Broader debt relief is the obvious next step but China is unlikely to lead that charge, analysts say, despite the potential opportunity to burnish its soft power credentials.
“The origin of Africa’s debt problem is complex, and the debt profile of each country varies,” China’s foreign ministry said in a response to Reuters’ questions.
“We are aware that some countries and international organisations have called for debt relief programmes for African countries, and we are willing to study the possibility of it jointly with the international community.”
A RISING POWER
Unlike major Western countries that granted debt relief in the past, a large part of China’s debt to Africa carries commercial terms. And China itself is still an emerging economy with per capita income of $10,153 in 2019, below the average of $45,447 for the top seven major economies, according to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
“China is still a rising power, and it is only a recent ... entrant as a major financial partner in Africa,” said Yunnan Chen of the Overseas Development Institute (ODI), a London think-tank.
“It also needs to make financial and economic returns on its investments. We are very unlikely to see direct loan forgiveness for a substantial bulk of loans.”
With its own economy expected to contract for the first time in three decades, China has signalled little appetite to go beyond its well-worn playbook of bilateral negotiations with debt-distressed partners.
“We can’t answer to every debt relief request without detailed analysis,” said He Haifeng, director of the Institute of Financial Policy at the Chinese Academy of Social Science, a government think tank.
“Some of the requests could cause moral hazard.”
Wealthy governments watching their own economies lurch towards recession are unlikely to pour significant resources into debt relief if they think the money will indirectly support Chinese creditors, analysts say.
With around 12,500 COVID-19 cases to date, Africa accounts for a small fraction of the more than 1.7 million infections globally.
Nonetheless African countries have taken a disproportionate hit due to plummeting oil and commodity prices and weaker currencies, which ramp up external debt servicing costs.
Their economies are expected to contract sharply this year and could lose 20 million jobs.
As an immediate step, the IMF and World Bank are pushing for a payment moratorium on bilateral debt owed by the world’s poorest countries.
Last week, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said China was “constructively” engaging on the issue. A Chinese official told Reuters that Beijing was willing to work with borrowers on a bilateral basis and agreed some countries should not be forced to service debt during the crisis.
The IMF is not currently pushing for a broader initiative, but experts say a payment freeze is a first step towards that.
NO GRAND GESTURES
African finance ministers are calling for a $100 billion stimulus package, of which $44 billion would come from not servicing debt - bilateral, multilateral or commercial. They want some debt owed by Africa’s poorest nations cancelled and the remainder converted into long-term, low-interest loans.
That’s a big ask, say experts.
China’s government, banks and companies lent some $143 billion to Africa between 2000-2017, much of it for large-scale infrastructure projects, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. By some estimates, Chinese lending now dwarfs World Bank loans in Africa.
The ODI estimates lending from China makes up 33% of external debt service in Kenya, 17% in Ethiopia and 10% in Nigeria.
Terms of Chinese lending have generally been favourable, though a CGD study found they were consistently harder than World Bank terms, particularly for the poorest countries.
Chinese institutions offered fewer grants; grace periods on loans were shorter, and the weighted mean interest rate was higher - 4.14% compared to the World Bank’s 2.1%.
Beijing has long rejected criticism, notably from Washington, of its lending policies.
“For a long time, China, in a responsible manner, has carried out investment and financing cooperation with African countries based on their willingness and needs,” the Chinese foreign ministry statement said.
While China has played a highly publicised role in Africa’s fight against the pandemic - with billionaire Jack Ma dispatching planeloads of medical equipment - there’s little indication of a similar grand gesture on debt.
Beijing has a history of working with struggling borrowers, but the process often aims to ease short-term pressure to ensure eventual repayment.
The New York-based Rhodium Group research firm, analysing recent negotiations between China and its borrowers, found debt forgiveness was relatively common, though the sums involved were often small and paired with substantial additional lending.
In Sudan, for example, China wrote off $160 million in 2017, 2.5% of the estimated $6.5 billion it was owed.
Ghana’s finance minister Ken Ofori-Atta said last week that China needed to do more. A foreign ministry spokesman said China would engage its partners individually.
Experts say China’s ad hoc approach cannot work in the current crisis but a coordinated initiative involving all creditors would require Beijing to open its books, something it has repeatedly resisted.
The Trump administration has in the past signalled reluctance to support broad debt relief, given Africa’s heavy borrowing from China.
U.S. officials did not respond to a request for comment.
Washington’s current absence from the conversation has left a leadership vacuum. But analysts say it may bristle at any process over which it deems Beijing to have too much influence.
“I worry that even if China sees this as an opportunity to seize leadership and exploit it, the U.S. could walk away from it,” the CGD’s Morris said.
