岁末年初，亚洲的法律产业之上萦绕着一股强烈的不安感。过去一年，虽然生活秩序恢复正常、供应链保持韧性，亚洲仍经历了诸多不确定因素的冲击，包括全球经济增速降缓、收紧的货币政策导致信用收缩，以及通胀带来的持续焦虑。此外，中国经济的平淡表现也给整个地区发展投下阴影。
2023本该是国际金融中心香港的“东山再起”之年。三年疫情冲击了这座城市的经济，地缘龃龉也降低了其对投资者的吸引力，然而迈入2023年之时，香港依旧满怀自信，期待着寻回自 己在国际市场占据的重要位置。
但一年将近之时，熟悉的挫败感再度来袭。出乎香港联交所——亚洲曾经首屈一指的融资重地——意料，备受期待的复兴航班仅仅是艰难驶离了航道。香港一度“任君自取”的资本市场，在过去一年却成了适者生存的竞技场。
表面看来，香港依旧保持着些许旧日风采。“资本市场领域的国际强所，例如达维、富而德、高伟绅，依旧统治着这一市场，在新冠管控措施放开后特别如此。”通商律师事务所联营周俊轩律师事务所管理合伙人周俊轩说——通商是中国资本市场领域最知名的律所之一。但深挖一点，市场便涌现出一些不
同的味道。例如一众国际律所在当前的市场形式下选择了裁员：年利达在中国内地和香港裁掉了至少20位初级律师；高伟绅裁掉了四位债券资本市场律师；美国所伟凯和凯易也在过去一年精简了香港办公室的律师数量。
“裁员意味着交易量不足，大型国际律所的公司或交易团队业务不饱和。” 浩宸律师行管理合伙人黄浩宸说。“香港IPO上市的热度依旧不高。IPO需要时间筹备，想要2024年上市的公司早就应该准备起来了，但这方面的动静却不多。这样的势头可不太妙。”
当然，“房间中的大象”还是中国不及预期的经济复苏速度，离岸律所奥杰香港管理合伙人包乐文说，这迫使许多律所采纳了“防守状态”。
彭德贤是离岸律所凯瑞奥信香港办公室管理合伙人，他指出香港的大多数国际律所都以服务对华投资和中国对外投资为主。“如果他们身处香港，却无法再为中国客户服务，那律所业务就岌岌可危了。”他说。
“不过，一些大型美国所一直在帮助大型国际私募公司进入亚洲市场 并展开运营，这部分业务并未完全枯竭。总的来说，和中国相关的并购业务将持续低迷，直到市场完全复原。”彭德 贤说。
由于目前潮头还未转向，越来越多国际所得出结论：或许不该在香港花费太多力气。步了得州律所贝克博茨、旧金山律所奥睿后尘，总部位于芝加哥的温斯顿律师事务所据报道也将关闭已开设15年之久的香港办公室。
2007年，黄浩宸曾将费城律所德杰在亚洲的第一面大旗插到了香港，并在其后六年中担任德杰香港的管理合伙人，他认为外国所管理合伙人有必要问自己两个问题。“第一，你所带领的具体团队、办公室在过去12个月的业务情况如何？未来12个月的业务预期又如何？对于离开香港市场的大型律所来说，他们给出的答案一定都是负面的。”
不过，伴随国际律所战略收缩，周俊轩相信不假时日，内地律所会在香港市场占据统治地位。
“现在我们常看见两家内地律所在同个交易中并肩作战，他们的价格、服务品质，以及对内地办公室资源及知识的调动能力显然对客户更有吸引力。”周俊轩说，并补充道他的律所目前在交易竞标中很有信心。
一位工作于某家内地律所香港办公室、不愿具名的律师回忆道，TA曾听大型国际所的高年级律师这样说：“假如开设了香港办公室的内地大型律所可以团结一致——就像2008，2009年时佳利、达维那些美国所一样——他们将很快构成一股新浪潮，所有客户都会跟风而去。”
谈到对2024年的预期，大家的看法不尽相同。包乐文认为前方存在更多不确定性。“大家都期待香港和中国内地的股权、债券市场出现转机，但现实是，2024可能同样艰难，除非美国市场的交易量和资本市场活跃度出现反弹。”他说。
与之相反，周俊轩认为伴随2024年曙光降临，IPO严冬也将结束，耽搁的交易将逐一启动。“春节后会有很多机会。不少IPO项目是在2023年下半年启动的，预期在2024年下半年完成上市。”不过他也承认，目前的市场和2019年时比还是略显疲软。
对于香港总体而言，黄浩宸认为这座亚洲的“世界之都”曾经聚焦于和西方世界，尤其美国做生意，现在则逐渐转向南方世界，包括中东、拉美、东欧客户。“要知道，香港并没有在一夜间从自由港口，变为保守之地。”他说。
HONG KONG: ‘ADAPT OR DIE’
The sense of unease remains strong in Asia’s legal industry. While life might have returned to normal, and supply chains appear back on track, the region is continuing to experience uncertainty over slowing global economic momentum, tightening monetary policy affecting credit growth, and lingering concerns about inflation. China’s seemingly irreversible economic decline is also hanging heavy.
2023 supposed to be the year of the grand comeback for the international financial hub. Three years of COVID might have choked its economy, and geopolitical perils might have maimed its investment allure, but Hong Kong was confident of reclaiming the place it staunchly believed it deserved when striding into 2023.
But as the year drew to a close, there was a sense of sameness. To the dismay of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, once Asia’s foremost fundraising powerhouse, the much-touted revival struggled to get off the ground. Hong Kong’s once “free-for-all” capital market is now an arena testing the survival of the fittest.
On the face of it, some aspects were reminiscent of Hong Kong’s heydays. “International firms who are strong in capital markets – Davis Polk, Freshfields, Clifford Chance, to name but a few – are still dominating the market, especially after the reopening of the border after COVID,” says Eric Chow, managing partner at Eric Chow & Co. in association with Commerce & Finance Law Offices, one of China’s Red Circle firms famed for capital markets work.
But scratch a little deeper, and the picture starts to change. A number of international firms chose to cut staff in response to dampened market conditions. Linklaters cut at least 20 junior attorneys in China and Hong Kong, while Clifford Chance shed four associates in the debt capital market practice, U.S. firms White & Case and Kirkland & Ellis also trimmed the number of associates in their Hong Kong offices this year.
“These layoffs suggest that these big global firms are not seeing enough deal flow or volume in their corporate or transactional teams,” says Basil Hwang, managing partner at Hauzen. “It certainly doesn’t seem there is much interest in IPOs in Hong Kong for now. These IPO preparations take time, and whoever wants an IPO next year should be preparing now, and I’m not hearing of a lot of these preparations going on. That might not bode too well for the IPO market next year.”
The elephant in the room, of course, is China’s slower-than-expected economic recovery, and Nicholas Plowman, Hong Kong managing partner at off-shore firm Ogier, says that it has forced many firms to play defence.
Michael Padarin, Hong Kong managing partner at offshore firm Carey Olsen, agrees that international law firms in the city still rely to a large extent on in and outbound business from China. “If they are here but can’t do work for Chinese clients, then that puts them in a challenging situation,” he says.
“Although for some bigger U.S. firms – we understand that a key function of the work they do is to help with the operation and expansion of larger global private equity firms into Asia. So, there are reserved pockets of work continuing, but the China-focused corporate M&A work, for example, will currently be slower until the market rebounds,” adds Padarin.
Indeed, with Hong Kong still mired in the crossfires of escalating Sino-U.S. animosity, law firms and the clients they serve have been constantly pondering the long-term commercial viability of their presence in Hong Kong - the Chinese special administrative region increasingly seen as being shackled by Beijing’s signals. And with no immediate sea change
in sight, more global firms are concluding that their Hong Kong operation may not be worth the trouble. Chicago-headquartered Winston & Strawn has reportedly become the latest international firm to shut down its Hong Kong office after 15 years, following in the footsteps of the likes of Texas-based Baker Botts and Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe, founded in San Francisco.
Hwang, who planted Dechert’s first flag in Asia and ran the Hong Kong office of the Philadelphia-based firm for six years till 2014, says managing partners sitting at overseas headquarters need to ask themselves two questions. “First, how’s the business been the last 12 months for this particular team or office? And what are the prospects for business in the next 12 months? The answer to both questions would need to be negative for big firms to pull out from the market.”
With the presence of international firms waning, Chow believes it’s just a matter of time before PRC firms begin to play a dominant role in Hong Kong’s legal market.
“It is now increasingly common to see two PRC firms acting on both sides of a deal as both cost and quality of the legal services provided (including tapping into their mainland offices’ resources and know-how) have proven more attractive to clients,” says Chow, adding that his firm is now well-placed when competing for deals.
An unnamed lawyer working in the Hong Kong office of a PRC firm recalls that senior lawyers in big inter-national firms once told them, “if all the big Chinese red circle firms having offices in Hong Kong work together - similar to what those U.S. firms such as Cleary Gottlieb and Davis Polk did around 2008, 2009 - PRC firms will be the next wave here, because the clients are all yours.”
Speaking of what to expect in 2024, feelings are mixed. For Plowman, more uncertainty lies ahead. “There is hope that the market will turn around in Hong Kong and China on the equity capital markets and the debt markets side, but the reality is that 2024 will likely be dif-ficult as well, unless we get a bump from the U.S. in terms of deal and capital market activity,” he notes.
Chow, on the other hand, sees a thaw in the IPO winter as deals delayed from this year finally see the light in 2024. “A lot of pitches and opportunities arose after the Lunar New Year. The actual kick-off of those IPO projects was in the second half of this year, aiming to be listed in the second half of next year,” he says while admitting that the current market is still softer compared to pre-2019 times.
For Hong Kong more broadly, Hwang - also vice chairman of the Singapore Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong - sees Asia’s World City, once thriving on transactions with a heavy Western focus, especially American, now pivoting towards clients from the global South, including Middle East, Latin America, and Eastern Europe. “Contrary to how it’s sometimes portrayed, Hong Kong hasn’t gone from being a very free economy to a gulag overnight,” he says.
