香港市场无疑在2022年经历了疫情爆发以来最低迷的一年，然而随着中国“重新开放”，香港这个联通世界的金融中心或将重新散发光芒。ALB与两位常驻香港的资本市场专家聊了聊内港通关所带来的影响，以及他们对2023年香港市场的展望。
 

今年1月初， 在调整后的疫情防控政策下，香港与内地实施首阶段通关，2月6日，内地与港澳之间则取消了所有通行限制。至此，时隔三年，内地与香港间终于恢复了人员正常往来。

对于疫情前曾频繁穿梭于两地市场、服务中外客户的律师来说，这可谓一个“里程碑”事件。天元律师事务所管理合伙人、香港办公室主管合伙人李竟弘律师告诉ALB，两地旅行限制给律师的客户开发及客户关系维系造成了颇多挑战，不过好在“疫情也培养了大家线上沟通的习惯，因此从沟通讨论、处理问题的角度看，开展工作并没有受到太大影响”。

“其实不仅在香港和内地之间，过去三年大陆各地之间的商务往来也都受到了不同程度的影响。我们能做的就是尽量去克服困难，争取和创造尽可能多的与客户面对面交流的机会，同时通过线上及时沟通来高效处理问题。”李律师说。为了更便利地服务于客户，过去三年他一直驻留内地办公，“两地能正常通关了，我就会回到香港。未来希望像以前一样，每周都往返于香港和内地之间。”

伴随着政策放开，包括内地与香港顺利通关，市场开始逐步回暖，但业界也存在着许多观望的声音。在李律师看来，过去三年受打击最为严重的莫过于市场信心，而信心的修复还需要时间。“在2022年香港资本市场表现不尽如人意，和两地是否通关关系不大，根本还是在于政策调控对于各行各业造成了冲击，也影响了投资人的信心和预期，这都需要一定的时间来恢复。”李律师直言。

“但随着整个政策面的调整，最近我们能够明显感觉到无论是投资人的信心，还是公司业务的恢复，以及资本市场推动融资上市的意愿，都在慢慢增强。”他说。

重重竞争

数据显示，2022年香港资本市场的IPO募资总额下滑72%，但交易自去年下半年起也初显复苏迹象。毕马威数据指出， 相较上半年，2022年第三四季度香港IPO交易的募资金额与交易数量分别攀升了4倍及2倍。此外，2022年也是香港资本市场SPAC机制运行的首年，在14个递表SPAC中，共有5家SPAC成功上市。

短暂回温之下，专业人士对于香港资本市场的未来发展仍旧保持谨慎。路透社在一篇文章中指出，成为国际IPO中心需要具备四个基本要素：想要募集资金的发行人、方便人员与资金进出的途径、大量出售股票的中间商，以及想要购买股票的投资者。目前，香港资本市场似乎在方方面面都承受着压力。

李竟弘律师便观察到了这样的压力。他指出，上市目的地竞争日益激烈，使得全球各地的资本市场呈现出“僧多粥少”的局面。竞争之一来自于美国，李律师直言：“美国和香港两地的资本市场具有非常直接的竞争关系，因为竞争的是同一类企业。比方说去年底中概股底稿审查问题尘埃落定，在美上市的中资企业赴港第二上市的迫切性就降低了。”

数据证实了李律师的说法：LiveReport数据显示，2023年1月便有12家中国企业赴美上市——2022年全年这一数字仅为21家，共筹集资金逾6亿美元，中概股赴美上市回暖迹象明显。

此外，李律师指出，“A股各板块也同样与香港资本市场存在不同程度的竞争关系。不过随着最近中国监管针对资本市场的各项政策落地，大中华区内的四个板块（A股主板、创业板、科创板 和 香港主板）有了相对明确的行业和企业类型的分工，这对中国企业正确选择适合自己的上市地是一件好事”。另外，根据ALB的观察，一些新兴的资本市场，例如新加坡，也开始被中国企业纳入考虑范畴。

机遇仍在

虽面临着不小的挑战，香港资本市场也能够凭借其足够的韧性见招拆招。去年11月底举办的Reuters NEXT会议上，港交所主席史美伦表示，赴港上市快速高效的特点使得香港仍然是企业上市的首选。她指出，目前，香港共有一百多个IPO发行人正在进行上市申请，其中包含例如滴滴出行等潜在大型上市项目。

受益于逐渐恢复的市场情绪，今年1月，港股市场也迎来了10家上市公司，均为首次公开募股，募资金额逾37亿港元。

贝克•麦坚时律师事务所亚太资本市场业务部主席王端淇律师便对恢复通关后的香港资本市场抱有积极态度。王律师告诉ALB：“实际上，许多企业一直都在寻求融资，他们只是在等待一个合适的时机重启IPO计划。中国的重新开放无疑激发了市场的乐观情绪，得以促进交易的进行。”

此外，制度的不断优化也有助于扩大香港投资者和发行人的基础。王律师表示：“沪港通机制的扩大和针对特专科技公司的上市制度改革便是很好的例子，这将进一步巩固香港作为中国主要金融渠道的地位。”

2022年12月，中国证监会和香港证监会发布联合公告，进一步深化内地与香港股票市场交易互联互通机制，扩大股票互联互通标的范围。沪深港通交易机制的优化进一步拓宽了跨境融资渠道，以求实现两地优势互补、协同发展。

此外，香港对上市制度的改革也在延续。继同股不同权上市、未盈利生物科技公司上市、海外上市公司赴港第二上市的制度改革之后，2022年10月，港交所就“特专科技公司”上市制度（18C章）进行修改并征求公众意见，以求为盈利还未能达到上市资格的科技企业提供登陆港交所主板的机会。

18C章所涉及的五大特专科技行业为新一代信息技术、先进硬件、先进材料、新能源及节能环保、新食品及农业技术。据第一财经报道，港交所18C章与上交所科创板在行业定位等方面虽然存在一定相似之处，但也同时形成了互补优势。

值得关注领域

18C章所涉及行业也同样是李竟弘律师未来重点关注的一个领域。他告诉ALB：“去年我们已经看见了这样的趋势，部分原来考虑做科创板、创业板的公司现在也会把香港作为一个选项。传统来讲，这类企业并不热衷于寻求赴港上市，但过去两年国内科创板和创业板审核趋严，他们也在考虑其他选择或者先H后A的可能。港交所18C章公布之后，香港到底能不能承接这些从科创板外溢的科技公司？这还要取决于18C的具体标准和执行，也考验香港的监管思路和参与香港资本市场投资人的接受程度。”

王端淇律师也表示：“我们预计，今年香港IPO活动将有机会出现反弹，特别是在科技和新经济领域，这将满足投资者被压抑的需求，同时更为律师事务所和市场从业者提供新的业务机会。”

除了科技领域，李律师提到在香港具备传统优势的零售消费行业会是未来赴港上市企业的一个主力，之前两年很活跃的生命科学与医疗健康领域、SaaS和To B相关领域项目也将会有所回升。

的确，香港仍会是通往中国内地的主要金融门户，三年疫情所带来的特殊影响终将弥散，但是企业业务仍需恢复，投资人仍处于观望状态，市场信心的回归也需要时间。

“我相信无论是业务量还是我们能做的项目，肯定都会受到包括通关在内一系列政策的正面影响，我们仍旧保持着谨慎乐观的态度。随着大环境的恢复和业务量的增长，香港资本市场和服务机构都会比22年更忙的，大家要有信心。”李律师指出。

Hong Kong’s market experienced undoubtedly its worst year since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2022, but China’s reopening is sure to make the financial center shine again. Capital markets lawyers, in particular, are bullish about the impact of the resumption of cross-border travel between Hong Kong and the Mainland, and are looking forward to the revival of the Hong Kong market in 2023.

Following adjustments to pandemic control measures early January this year, Hong Kong and the Mainland took the first steps towards cross-border travel. All travel restrictions were subsequently lifted on Feb. 6, and the two places finally resumed normal personnel exchanges after three years.

This was a milestone for lawyers who used to frequently shuttle between the two markets to serve Chinese and foreign clients pre-pandemic. Nan Li, managing partner and head of the Hong Kong office of Tian Yuan Law Firm, tells ALB that travel restrictions between the two places have brought many challenges to lawyers in developing clients and maintaining client relationships. Fortunately, "the pandemic also spurred the development and use of online conferencing software. So business has not been greatly affected in terms of communication, discussion and problem solving."

"In fact, all business exchanges in China have been affected in the past three years. All we can do is to try our best to overcome the difficulties to talk to clients in person as much as possible, while relying on online communication to deal with problems efficiently," adds Li. 

To better serve clients, he has been based on the Mainland for the past three years, but "soon I will return to Hong Kong to visit clients. Hopefully I can go back to weekly commute between Hong Kong and the Mainland as before."

The resumption of travel between the Mainland and Hong Kong has triggered the return of optimism to the market, although voices of caution can also be heard in the industry. In Li's view, nothing has been hit harder than market confidence in the past three years, and restoring confidence takes time. "Especially in 2022, Hong Kong's capital market underperformed. I think the root cause is that policy measures have greatly affected many industries, and the loss in companies' business and the confidence of investors still need time to recover," says Li.

"However, with overall policy fine-tuning, we can feel investors are gradually becoming more confident, companies' business is slowly recovering, and the capital market is more willing to promote financing and listing,” he notes 

STIFF COMPETITION 

Data show a 72 per cent decline in the total amount of funds raised from IPOs in Hong Kong’s capital market in 2022, although deals have also begun to show signs of recovery since the second half of last year. 

According to KPMG, compared to the first half of 2022, the amount of funds raised from Hong Kong IPOs and the number of those IPOs in Q3 and Q4 of 2022 have increased by four and two times respectively. Besides, 2022 was also the first year that Hong Kong’s capital market has launched SPAC regime, leading to the successful listing of five SPACs among 14 applications.

Despite the brief rebound, professionals remain cautious about the future prospects of Hong Kong's capital market. Reuters points out that an international IPO center requires four basic elements: companies that want to raise capital – which in Hong Kong’s case are mostly companies that come from elsewhere; ways for people and money to get in and out; plenty of middlemen ready to sell the shares; and investors who want to buy those shares. At present, the Hong Kong market seems to be under pressure on all fronts.

Li is not unaware of these issues. He points out that the increasingly fierce competition for listing destinations means an oversupply on the global capital market. The United States is a key competitor. "The capital markets of the U.S. and Hong Kong directly compete against each other over the same type of businesses. Especially since the issue of working paper review of US-listed Chinese companies was settled at the end of last year, Chinese-funded enterprises no longer find the urgency to go to Hong Kong for a secondary listing."

U.S. listings of Chinese companies are clearly recovering. LiveReport’s data confirm Li's assessment: in January 2023, 12 Chinese companies went public in the US——while only 21 were listed there for the whole of 2022, raising over USD 600 million in total. 

In addition, Li says that "with the recent implementation of various Chinese regulatory policies for the capital market, there is a relatively clear division of the four sectors and types of companies within the Greater China region, which is a good thing for Chinese companies to choose the right place for their listing." What’s more, ALB observes that some emerging capital markets, such as Singapore, have also appeared on the radar of Chinese companies.

OPPORTUNITIES REMAIN

On the other hand, Hong Kong's capital market is resilient enough to overcome challenges. At the Reuters NEXT conference at the end of November last year, Laura Cha, Chairman of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, commented that Hong Kong is still the first choice for companies to go public given its fast and efficient listing process. According to her, more than 100 IPOs are in the pipeline for listing in Hong Kong, including potential large listings such as Didi Chuxing.

Benefiting from recovering market sentiment, the Hong Kong stock market welcomed ten new listings this January, all of which are IPOs raising more than HK$3.7 billion.

Ivy Wong, Asia-Pacific chair of the capital markets practice at Baker McKenzie, is optimistic about Hong Kong’s capital market after the resumption of cross-border travel. " Many businesses have been looking to raise funds but are just waiting for the right time to revive their IPO plans. China's reopening has certainly spurred new optimism in the market and facilitate deal execution."

Moreover, the continuous improvement of rules will also help expand the base of investors and issuers in Hong Kong. "Regulatory reforms such as the expansion of the Stock Connect schemes and the proposed new listing regime for specialist tech companies are expected to help broaden both investors and issuers base in Hong Kong, further solidifying the city's role as the China's leading financial conduit."

In December 2022, the CSRC and the SFC issued a joint announcement on further deepening the interconnection mechanisms between stock markets of the Mainland and Hong Kong and expanding the scope of underlying stocks for such mechanisms. This move has further broadened cross-border financing channels to facilitate complementary advantages and coordinated development of the two places.

Hong Kong also continues to reform its listing processes. In October 2022, the HKEX consulted the public on listing rules for "specialist technology companies" (Chapter 18C), hoping to provide technology companies whose profitability has not met the listing criteria with opportunities to list on HKEX's main board.

The five specialized technology industries are new generation information technology, advanced hardware, advanced materials, new energy and energy conservation and environmental protection, and new food and agricultural technology. According to YiCai, despite some similarities between HKEX’s proposed new rules and the STAR Market in terms of industry positioning, there are also complementary advantages.

AREAS TO WATCH

The industries involved in Chapter 18C are also areas that Li will focus on going forward. "We already noticed this trend last year. Companies that might be considering ChiNext or the STAR Market are now considering Hong Kong as a choice. Traditionally, such companies have not been keen on listing in Hong Kong. However, with the HKEX announcing Chapter 18C, will Hong Kong be able to accommodate the inflow of these technology companies? This depends on the degree of acceptance of investors in Hong Kong."

"We are hopeful for a rebound in Hong Kong IPO activities this year, particularly in the tech and new economy sectors, which should meet investors' pent-up demand and in turn provide new opportunities for law firms and market practitioners," says Wong.
Apart from technology industry, Li predicts that life sciences and healthcare, retail consumer, and projects in SaaS and To B related fields will also pick up.

Indeed, Hong Kong will remain the main financial gateway to Mainland China, and the impact of the pandemic will eventually dissipate. However, the business of companies still needs to recover, investors are still on the sidelines, and market confidence still takes time to return.
"I believe that both business volume and the projects we can do will definitely grow now that cross-border travel has resumed. So with the recovery of the macro environment and the growth of business volume, Hong Kong's capital markets and service providers are going to be busier than they have been in the last years, so let's have faith on that," says Li.