在越发严格的监管、来自在岸“开曼风格”基金的竞争，以及疲软的并购市场等诸般因素影响下，2023年离岸律师事务所可谓挑战重重。律所管理者与我们分享了2024年的几大议题：包括即将颁布的金融科技和数字资产法规、新加坡和香港等“在岸”中心带来的挑战，以及ESG和人工智能等新话题重要性的不断提升。
在持续不断的俄乌冲突、哈以冲突之中，增长缓慢、经济复苏疲软的2023年即将告一段落。过去一年，公众继续见证了中美摩擦升级、高通胀和高税率，以及对于去全球化、加强跨境监管的持续呼求。
开曼群岛、英属维尔京群岛（BVI）和百慕大等离岸商业中心也未能在这场席卷全球的“增长寒冬”中幸免。不过，工作于亚洲的离岸律师期待能够在2024年忙碌起来，他们指出亚洲的离岸投资需求向来很稳定，加速的市场复苏也正在进行之中。
“虽然和2023年一样，明年初亚洲投资者们将继续秉持谨慎态度，但不得不说，亚洲市场上的现金流还是很充裕，基金LP们对该区域的中长期发展很有信心。2024年，预期亚洲区域市场的增长将领衔并带动全球增长。”奥杰律师事务所香港合伙人David Nelson说。
“假如一些忧虑和挑战在2024年得以缓解，例如融资成本和财产估值，或许非上市公司并购将有所增长。”他补充道。
的确，连国际货币基金组织（IMF）也将亚太地区视为2024年全球发展的亮点，认为该区域明年将为全球贡献约三分之二的增量。
不过，离岸市场中的律师事务所仍要面临多重挑战，例如持续强化的监管、变化的市场偏好，以及来自在岸和中岸市场的竞争。处理好这些问题，方能制胜2024。
来自新加坡、香港的竞争
麦安腾律师（Anthony McKenzie）是凯瑞奥信新加坡办公室的管理合伙人，他坦言，来自新加坡、香港等在岸中心的竞争无疑日趋激烈。
“近些年，我们看到了一些新的‘开曼风格’结构选择（例如新加坡的可变资本公司，和香港的开放式基金型公司），加之全球监管改革、市场偏好变化，都导致离岸管辖区面临越来越多来自在岸、中岸管辖区的挑战。”麦律师说。
2020年，新加坡的《可变资本公司法》（VCC）正式生效，建立了一种在新加坡金融管理局监察之下、可以以低税率容存大笔资金的新制度。香港同样改革了开放式基金型公司制度，使其更具备吸引力。
这些基金模式将资产和财富管理领域的大笔资金吸引到了新加坡和香港，与离岸中心形成了直接的竞争关系。
凯瑞奥信香港办公室的管理合伙人彭德贤律师（Michael Padarin）补充道，客户现在会自主展开司法管辖区分析和尽调，将新加坡、香港和离岸中心进行多番比较。
“我们继续协助客户在离岸中心展开基金设立活动，但也很清楚对于基金设立地，客户现在的心态更为开放，也会积极协助客户展开司法管辖区分析和尽调程序。”彭律师说。
但在此种分析过后，他强调，大多数公司仍会选择离岸中心。“尽调过后，大多数客户还会将基金设立在开曼群岛——这里仍是设立投资基金的最佳选择地。”
更多法规
离岸律师事务所同时提到了离岸中心颁布的诸多新法规，他们非常欢迎这些法规的出台——在不减损效率的前提下，新法提升了离岸中心的可靠度，以及在这些地方做生意的舒适程度。
“过去几年，不少离岸司法管辖区的新规数量都有所增长。大多数客户对此持欢迎态度，因为新规能降低法律和监管风险，也提高了对股东的保护程度。”彭德贤说。
“我们尽量减少新规对客户的影响，最大程度将新规涉及的必要合规任务纳入自动化流程。”他补充道。
其中一项积极的法规变化是，目前包括BVI、百慕大、开曼群岛等在内的离岸法域都认可了虚拟资产服务提供商（VASP）。
“在亚洲，甚至全球，我们看到客户问询内容的变化，以及大家对于离岸中心虚拟/数字资产服务监管态度的变化。市场目前的普遍看法是：想和声誉度高、受到高度监管的客户做生意，虚拟/数字资产服务提供商有必要借助良好立法的途径来证明自身的可靠性。”麦安腾解释道。
他说，凯瑞奥信接受了许多委托，协助亚洲数字资产公司在开曼群岛、BVI和百慕大注册并申请牌照，其中涉及不少全新且复杂的项目。
“也因此，我们将继续投入于亚洲地区的金融科技、监管科技业务领域。”麦律师说。
增长空间
最近几年，相较于其“竞争者”香港，新加坡正成为区域、国际和离岸律所开设新办公室的最佳目的地。
“借助其政治稳定性、强有力的法律框架、监管规范的金融领域、有竞争力的税率、极佳的基础设施，以及吸引外资的友好政策，新加坡越来越受到投资者的青睐。此外，新加坡距离快速发展的东南亚新经济体更近，也被视为进入印度市场的跳板，对于期待进入亚洲市场的外国商人来说，这里是极佳的落脚地。”麦安腾说。
“开曼群岛政府最近宣布在新加坡开设首个亚洲办事处，这是个积极的信号，也彰显了新加坡作为亚洲领先资管及私人客户中心的地位。”他补充道。
不过Nelson指出，亚洲市场丰富多元，在新加坡之外，客户也期待投资于其他新兴市场。
“对司法管辖区偏好的变化，以及不同市场活跃着不同类型玩家的现状，也引导我们不断进入新地域、新市场，也有机会帮助新玩家落户业已成熟的市场。”
他补充道，下行的经济图景意味着重组、银行与金融、投资管理、诉讼、债务执行、退出等类型服务需求增多，这一趋势也将延续至2024年。
新话题
在新兴话题方面，离岸市场对于ESG话题的讨论迎合了全球趋势，离岸区的议会、商会也将环境风险分析、碳减排等列为了首要议题。
“预计离岸律师事务所将重新定义传统的业务团队，以和客户在可持续投资和ESG方面的需求对齐。”凯瑞奥信的麦安腾表示。
奥杰的Nelson说，ESG需求的增长也影响了交易文件的起草。
“我们见证了一波涌向ESG投资的基金、投资者和企业，并且在债务文件中增加了所谓的‘ESG条款’。全球性的大趋势正在塑造这一领域的发展，包括气候危机、不断演变的法规和日益增长的投资者需求，我们预计这一趋势将持续下去。”Nelson说。
为了把握日益增长的ESG需求，奥杰成立了一个可持续投资咨询团队，“这意味着我们能够超越仅仅提供法律建议，支持客户将ESG政策内化为内部运营流程，并在不断变化的ESG监管环境中为客户指点迷津。”Nelson说。
ESG之外，人工智能是另一个预期增长的领域。Nelson表示，尽管人工智能的应用在法律领域还处于起步阶段，但奥杰正在进行研究和开发，评估如何最大化地利用人工智能优化其内部工作流程和客户服务。
“我认为人工智能将补充律师的技能，而非成为律师的替代品。”他说。
Offshore law firms have had a challenging 2023, with stiffer regulations, increased onshore competition from "Cayman-style" funds and slow M&A recovery holding back growth. Law firm leaders talk about some of their big themes for 2024, including the advent of financial technology and digital asset regulations, the rise in competition from "onshore" centres like Singapore and Hong Kong, and the potential for emerging areas like ESG and AI to grow in importance.
Another year of slow growth and insufficient economic recovery is coming to an end against the backdrop of continued conflict in Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Palestine, heightened tensions between the U.S. and China, rising inflation and interest rates and calls for decreased globalisation and increased cross-border regulation.
Offshore business hubs such as the Cayman Islands, British Virgin Islands (BVI) and Bermuda have not been spared of the repercussions of this global "growth winter." Despite this, offshore lawyers in Asia expect a busy 2024, given the region's long-standing track record of steady offshore investments and the promise of an expedited market recovery.
"Whilst investors seem set to begin next year with a similarly cautious outlook to that which we have seen during 2023, there is still a large amount of dry powder in Asia, and regional LPs appear positive on the mid/long term outlook for the region. Regional economic growth for 2024 is also expected to be a considerable contributor to annual global growth," says David Nelson, a Hong Kong-based partner at offshore firm Ogier.
"We may see an uptick in private M&A through in 2024 if some of the concerns and challenges, especially around cost of financing and asset value, ease off," he adds.
Indeed, an uptick in Asia is anticipated in the coming year, with the International Monetary Fund calling the Asia-Pacific region a global bright spot in 2024, placing it on track to contribute to about two-thirds of global growth in the year.
But, law firms in offshore markets will have to deal with increased regulatory scrutiny, shifting market preferences, and competition from onshore and mid-shore markets to be able to drive growth in 2024.
MORE COMPETITION FROM SINGAPORE, HK
Anthony McKenzie, Singapore managing partner at Carey Olsen, says competition from onshore centres like Singapore and Hong Kong is certainly increasing.
"In recent years, we have seen new 'Cayman-style' structuring options (such as the Singapore VCC and HK open-ended fund company) together with global regulatory reforms and shifts in market preference that have resulted in offshore jurisdictions seeing competition from onshore and mid-shore jurisdictions," McKenzie says.
In 2020, Singapore's Variable Capital Companies Act (VCC) came into force, establishing a fund structure that allows for the parking of large pools of capital in low-taxed, discreet packages under a regime scrutinised by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Hong Kong also amended its 'open-ended fund company' regime, to make it more attractive.
These alternate funding models have attracted more money in the asset and wealth management sectors into Singapore and Hong Kong, in direct competition with offshore centres.
Carey Olsen's Hong Kong managing partner, Michael Padarin, adds that clients are more likely now to conduct an independent jurisdictional analysis and due diligence, comparing options available in Singapore and Hong Kong to those in offshore centres.
"Whilst we continue to assist clients on offshore fund formation projects, we are very aware that clients are coming to the process with a much more open mindset in terms of domicile, and part of our role now generally also involves facilitating introductions to domestic providers to allow clients to run their jurisdictional analysis and due diligence process," Padarin says.
However, he maintains that most of these companies decide to go offshore, even after such an analysis.
"Having done their diligence, we are seeing the vast majority of clients continuing to domicile their funds in the Cayman Islands as it remains the global jurisdiction of choice for investment funds."
INCREASED REGULATON
Offshore law firms are also welcoming the increased regulation in offshore centres, which have increased the credibility and comfort of these offshore bases, without reducing their effectiveness, among stakeholders doing business through them.
"Regulation in the offshore jurisdictions in which we operate has increased in the past handful of years. Most clients see increased regulation as a positive development as it helps to minimise legal and regulatory risks and enhances shareholder protections," says Padarin.
"We have aimed to minimise the impact of such regulation on clients through seeking to the greatest extent possible to automate the necessary compliance tasks associated with such regulation," he adds.
A positive regulatory development has been the recognisance of virtual asset service providers in offshore jurisdictions including BVI, Bermuda and the Cayman Islands.
"In Asia and across our wider network of offices we have seen a change in the nature of enquiries and a change in the attitude towards offshore regulation around virtual/digital asset services. There is now an increasing perception that in order to do business with reputable institutions and regulated clients, virtual/digital asset service providers themselves need to demonstrate credibility through reputable regulation," McKenzie explains.
He says that Carey Olsen has being seeing an increasing number of mandates to assist Asian digital asset companies on Cayman Island, BVI and Bermuda registrations and licensing applications involving novel, complex and innovative projects.
"As a result, we continue to invest in our fintech and regtech practices in Asia," McKenzie adds.
GROWTH AREAS
With increased political turbulence and regulatory scrutiny in Hong Kong, slowing down of China's economy and rising geopolitical tensions in the region, Singapore has emerged as the best choice for new offices for regional, international and offshore law firms.
"Singapore is considered a favourable destination for doing business due to its political stability, strong legal framework, well-regulated financial sector, competitive tax rates, excellent infrastructure and pro-business policies that attract foreign investment. Singapore is close to the next wave of fast-growing economies in Southeast Asia, is a stepping-stone to the India market and is ideally situated as a regional Asian play for international businesses," McKenzie says.
"The Cayman Islands government's recent announcement to establish its first Asia office in Singapore is a positive development and underscores the importance of Singapore as Asia's leading asset management and private client hub," he adds.
Nelson says that Asia's markets are diverse, and clients are looking to invest across various emerging Asian markets outside Singapore as well.
"The shift in jurisdictional focus and the types of players operating in different markets gives us an opportunity to grow into new markets and geographic areas and to target new entrants into certain more established ones."
He adds that increased economic distress has meant an increase in restructuring, banking and finance, portfolio management, litigation, secured debt enforcements and divestments, a trend he expects to continue in 2024.
NEW THEMES
Among emerging areas, ESG in offshore markets is growing along global lines, with environmental risk analysis and carbon reduction becoming a top agenda in parliaments and chambers of commerce.
"I expect we will continue to see offshore law firms reinventing traditional practice groups to align with client sustainable investing and ESG needs," Carey Olsen's McKenzie says.
The growth of ESG has also affected drafting of deal documentation, says Ogier's Nelson.
"We have seen a flood of funds, investors and corporates doing ESG investments and a rise in the inclusion of so-called 'ESG clauses' in debt documentation. Several global megatrends are shaping this development, including the climate crisis, evolving regulation and growing investor demand, and we expect this trend to continue," Nelson says.
To harness this growing ESG demand, Ogier has also set up a Sustainable Investment Consulting team, "which means we are able to go beyond legal advice and support clients in translating ESG policy into operations and in navigating the evolving ESG regulatory landscape," Nelson says.
Along with ESG, artificial intelligence is another area that's primed for growth. While maintaining that AI in legal is still in its nascent stage, Nelson says Ogier is undertaking research and development to assess how to maximise AI for its internal workflow and client services.
"AI is something I see as becoming supplementary to, rather than replacing, the skills of our lawyers," he says.
