2020年可能会成为有史以来最为动荡的年份之一。由于新冠疫情给全球按下暂停键，全球大部分活动和行业均陷入停滞。此后，全球各地并购市场表现可谓好坏不一。
根据数据和分析公司GlobalData的数据，2020年上半年，亚太地区并购交易活动表现不一。
GlobalData的金融交易数据库显示，已宣布并购交易量自2020年2月的494宗减少到2020年3月的457宗。但是，同期交易额则从241亿美元上升至286亿美元。
第二季度，已宣布并购交易量自4月份的505宗，下降至5月份的493宗，随后又在6月份反弹至564宗。
其交易额也走出类似的“下-下-上”曲线，从4月份的339亿美元降至5月份的315亿美元，随后又在6月份反弹至356亿美元。
尽管全球形势严峻，但中国市场在交易量和交易额上均继续蝉联地区首位。
2020年第一季度，中国市场以165亿美元的交易额位居榜首（占亚太地区总交易额的19.5％）。在交易量上，中国在主要国家中的排名也仅次于日本。而在第二季度，中国预计将获得双料冠军。
GlobalData首席分析师Aurojyoti Bose说：“最先发现新冠疫情的中国从3月份开始开放经济，促进了并购市场的复苏。”
这使得中国市场交易量和交易额在6月份双双反弹，而同期亚太地区交易额在经历两连跌后也在6月份反弹至356亿美元。
尽管如此，由于新冠疫情带来的融资困难和旅行限制增加，导致大量并购交易被推迟或取消。
根据Mergermarket的报道，在控制住疫情后的2020年第二季度，中国内地和中国香港市场开始恢复，“但欧洲、美国和其他地区的疫情抑制了消费需求，进而扰乱了供应链。”
与2019年相比，今年上半年入境交易量显著增加。受史上最大规模的58同城私有化的推动，2020年第二季度的交易量与第一季度相比也呈现出显著反弹。
Mergermarket的分析师表示：“私募股权收购数据主要来自价值76亿美元的58同城私有化交易。”
随着特朗普政府加大力度“削减美国资本市场的中国上市公司数量”，预计将有更多在美上市的中国公司启动私有化交易。这些公司可能都希望在中国大陆或香港的交易所重新上市，以规避美国的监管压力。
随着新冠疫情得到控制后生产得以恢复，外商投资活动逐渐升温。但是，中国经济发展仍然面临许多挑战：新冠疫情和北京与华盛顿之间不断升级的紧张局势，正导致科技行业的交易活动频发。
Mergermarket分析师表示：“中国顶层决策者号召加快国内区块链、金融科技和人工智能等领域的发展。但是，经济低迷抑制了消费需求，并导致消费行业以及能源、采矿与公用事业、消费、工业和化工等其他传统行业的并购活动显著减缓。”
尽管如此，中国政府还是出台了一系列政策，以期刺激内需，加速经济复苏，并抵消潜在的出口下降。
美国仍在努力阻止美国企业在华投资，而中国则仍在向外国资本开放其国内市场。但是，美国减少对华投资的这些努力并不太成功。中国大陆和香港的一些私募股权基金纷纷暂停了其投资组合中的收购交易，但对中国公司的美国存托凭证（ADR）的私有化要约可能会吸引私募股权投资者纷纷追逐重新上市后的高回报。
即便是企业纷纷寻求在中国大陆或香港的交易所重新上市以规避美国监管压力，但由于最近股市遭遇抛售导致估值下滑，一些香港上市公司也在考虑私有化。其中包括会德丰、宜信集团、利丰和华电福新等公司。
尽管出行限制和其他干扰可能对时间表有所影响，但私募股权投资者仍可以积极参与高质量公司的私有化项目。就目前而言，由于经济复苏，投资者等待私募股权投资估值上升，因此私募股权投资退出仍然低迷。
根据Mergermarket的报道，不确定的环境和营收骤降导致的波动性无疑将对退出估值和退出时机产生负面影响，尤其是商业航天、零售和休闲行业。
Bose说：“与第二波新冠疫情有关的地缘政治担忧和风险仍普遍存在，促使投资者在考虑大笔投资时采取更加谨慎的态度。”
但是，随着2020年下半年中国公司努力吸引更多外国投资并进行内部重组，产权交易商将迎来新机遇。
尽管如此，八月份仍然有一些大交易。Mergermarket将中国教育集团控股有限公司从海南申正实业集团有限公司手中收购海口经济学院60%的股份列为该月商业服务领域的顶级交易之一。该笔交易预计价值3.89亿美元。
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CHINA DOMESTIC |
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Tier 1 Haiwen & Partners Han Kun Law Offices JunHe LLP King & Wood Mallesons Zhong Lun Law Firm |
Tier 2 AllBright Law Offices Commerce & Finance Dahui Lawyers DeHeng Law Offices Global Law Office Grandall Law Firm Guantao Law Firm Jincheng Tongda & Neal Law Firm Jingtian & Gongcheng Llinks Law Offices Tian Yuan Law Firm |
Tier 3 Beijing Dentons Law Offices, LLP Broad & Bright East & Concord Partners Grandway Law Offices Jia Yuan Law Offices |
Notable Firms Beijing DHH Law Firm CM Law Firm Co-effort Law Firm HHP Attorneys-At-Law Shihui Partners 世辉律师事务所 SunShine Law Firm 浙江阳光时代律师事务所 T&D Associates 天地和律师事务所 Tahota Law Firm 泰和泰律师事务所 |
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CHINA INTERNATIONAL |
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Tier 1 Clifford Chance Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer Linklaters Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom |
Tier 2 Allen & Overy Baker McKenzie FenXun DLA Piper Hogan Lovells Norton Rose Fulbright Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison Simpson Thacher & Bartlett White & Case |
Tier 3 Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton Davis Polk & Wardwell Morgan, Lewis & Bockius Morrison & Foerster Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe Paul Hastings Shearman & Sterling Sullivan & Cromwell Weil, Gotshal & Manges |
Notable Firms Ashurst Bird & Bird CMS Eversheds Sutherland Gide Loyrette Nouel Herbert Smith Freehills Jones Day K&L Gates Latham & Watkins Mayer Brown O'Melveny Reed Smith Richards Butler Ropes & Gray Simmons & Simmons Stephenson Harwood Winston & Strawn |
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HONG KONG |
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Tier 1 Clifford Chance Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer Kirkland & Ellis Linklaters Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom Slaughter and May |
Tier 2 Allen & Overy Davis Polk & Wardwell Herbert Smith Freehills Latham & Watkins Norton Rose Fulbright Shearman & Sterling Simpson Thacher & Bartlett Sullivan & Cromwell Weil, Gotshal & Manges |
Tier 3 Ashurst Baker McKenzie Deacons Hogan Lovells King & Wood Mallesons Mayer Brown Morrison & Foerster Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison Reed Smith Richards Butler White & Case |
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INDIA |
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Tier 1 AZB & Partners Cyril Amarchand Mangaldas Economic Laws Practice IndusLaw Khaitan & Co. Kochhar & Co. L&L Partners Majmudar & Partners S&R Associates Shardul Amarchand Mangaldas & Co Trilegal |
Tier 2 Bharucha & Partners Desai & Diwanji DSK Legal Gagrats HSA Advocates J Sagar Associates LexCounsel Nishith Desai Associates Phoenix Legal Platinum Partners Talwar Thakore & Associates Vaish Associates Veritas Legal |
Tier 3 ALMT Legal Argus Partners Clasis Law Dhir & Dhir Associates Fox Mandal & Associates Hammurabi & Solomon Partners Juris Corp K Law Rajani & Associates Samvad Partners Sarthak Advocates & Solicitors Singh & Associates Singhania & Partners Spice Route Legal Tatva Legal Vertices Partners Wadia Ghandy & Co |
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INDONESIA |
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Tier 1 Ali Budiardjo, Nugroho, Reksodiputro Assegaf Hamzah & Partners Ginting & Reksodiputro in association with Allen & Overy Hadiputranto, Hadinoto & Partners, a member firm of Baker McKenzie Hiswara Bunjamin & Tandjung in association with Herbert Smith Freehills SSEK Legal Consultants |
Tier 2 Dentons HPRP Lubis Ganie Surowidjojo Makarim & Taira S. Makes & Partners Melli Darsa & Co (PwC) Oentoeng Suria & Partners in association with Ashurst Soemadipradja & Taher Widyawan & Partners |
Tier 3 AYMP Atelier of Law Christian Teo & Partners Hogan Lovells DNFP, in association with Dewi Negara Fachri & Partners Mochtar Karuwin Komar Roosdiono & Partners Widyawan & Partners |
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JAPAN DOMESTIC |
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Tier 1 Anderson Mori & Tomotsune Mori Hamada & Matsumoto Nagashima Ohno & Tsunematsu Nishimura & Asahi TMI Associates |
Tier 2 Atsumi & Sakai Ushijima & Partners |
Tier 3 City-Yuwa Partners Hibiya-Nakata Miura & Partners Oh-Ebashi LPC & Partners southgate |
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JAPAN INTERNATIONAL |
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Tier 1 Allen & Overy Gaikokuho Kyodo Jigyo Horitsu Jimusho Baker McKenzie (Gaikokuho Joint Enterprise) Herbert Smith Freehills Morrison & Foerster/ Ito & Mitomi Shearman & Sterling Simpson Thacher & Bartlett |
Tier 2 Clifford Chance Law Office Davis Polk & Wardwell DLA Piper Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer Hogan Lovells Horitsu Jimusho Gaikokuho Kyodo Jigyo Linklaters Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom White & Case - White & Case Law Offices (Registered Association) |
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MALAYSIA |
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Tier 1 Christopher & Lee Ong Rahmat Lim & Partners Shearn Delamore & Co Skrine Wong & Partners |
Tier 2 Abdullah Chan & Co Adnan Sundra & Low Kadir Andri & Partners Lee Hishammuddin Allen & Gledhill Mah-Kamariyah & Philip Koh Zaid Ibrahim & Co (a member of ZICO Law) Zain & Co |
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PHILIPPINES |
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Tier 1 (ACCRALAW) Quisumbing Torres Picazo Buyco Tan Fider & Santos Romulo Mabanta Buenaventura Sayoc & De Los Angeles SyCip Salazar Hernandez & Gatmaitan |
Tier 2 Castillo Laman Tan Pantaleon & San Jose Cruz Marcelo & Tenefrancia C&G Law Puno & Puno Puyat Jacinto & Santos Law Offices Villaraza & Angangco |
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SINGAPORE DOMESTIC |
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Tier 1 Allen & Gledhill Rajah & Tann Singapore Morgan Lewis Stamford WongPartnership |
Tier 2 Drew & Napier TSMP Law Corporation |
Tier 3 Baker McKenzie Wong & Leow Bird & Bird ATMD CNPLaw Dentons Rodyk Duane Morris & Selvam Harry Elias Partnership Pinsent Masons MPillay RHTLaw Shook Lin & Bok |
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SINGAPORE INTERNATIONAL |
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Tier 1 Allen & Overy Clifford Chance Linklaters Milbank |
Tier 2 Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer Herbert Smith Freehills Hogan Lovells Lee & Lee Jones Day Latham & Watkins Norton Rose Fulbright Morrison & Foerster Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom White & Case |
Tier 3 HFW K&L Gates - Straits Law Practice King & Spalding Shearman & Sterling Sidley Austin Stephenson Harwood |
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SOUTH KOREA DOMESTIC |
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Tier 1 Bae, Kim & Lee Kim & Chang Lee & Ko Shin & Kim Yulchon |
Tier 2 Barun Law DR & AJU Hwang Mok Park Jipyong KL Partners Yoon & Yang |
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SOUTH KOREA INTERNATIONAL |
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Tier 1 Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton Paul Hastings Ropes & Gray White & Case |
Tier 2 Ashurst Baker McKenzie Clifford Chance Dechert Herbert Smith Freehills Latham & Watkins Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom |
市场起伏
在过去的12个月中，中国出境、入境以及国内并购市场都经历了不少起伏和挑战。
出境并购市场的低迷和下行尤为显著。世辉律师事务所合伙人张晓晨律师说道：“无论是政府对于资金出境的持续强化监管，还是中美摩擦加剧语境下所造成的市场不确定性增大，都使得中国的出境并购市场整体处于自2017年以来的下降通道中。”
他接着说：“而自今年年初以来，由于疫情所带来的负面影响，包括疫情在国内以及海外不同时点的爆发，以及目前在海外、包括诸多欧美常见境外投资目的地的持续蔓延，也使得中国出境并购市场的诸多项目暂停，进一步导致了出境并购项目交割数量下降。”
嘉源律师事务所合伙人刘越律师也认为，中国出境并购在过去12个月中面临着史无前例的挑战：国外市场监管环境给中国企业投资带来了各种打压和阻碍；疫情造成的经营困难使得民营企业投资资金紧张、投资意愿下降，且受制于无法进行实地考察和面对面交流，即使有交易意愿，海外投资并购也难于实现。
在入境并购方面，虽然数字也呈下行趋势，但相比出境并购，其整体情况较为乐观。
“入境市场的情况虽然也面临诸多负面因素，但就我们观察，与中国从疫情中较早恢复以及进一步扩大开放有关，入境并购市场整体情况相对乐观。”张晓晨律师分析道。
汉坤律师事务所合伙人周成曜律师也指出，中国实施了新的外商投资法，并更新了外资准入负面清单，全国性的负面清单由40条减少至33条，自贸试验区的负面清单由37条减至30条。加上中国疫情缓解，7月开始，市场明显活跃了起来。
而在过去12个月里，国内并购市场也明显随着疫情情况起伏。
嘉源律师事务所合伙人任保华律师向ALB回顾道：“2019年下半年的国内并购市场较为平稳，疫情开始后被按了暂停键。今年1月至4月，并购项目所需的审计、评估和法律尽调工作都不能正常开展，直到5月份开始逐渐恢复正常，之后并购项目集中开展，市场开始进入活跃期。”
通力律师事务所合伙人俞卫锋律师指出，一方面，跨境并购因全球“经济一体化”遭遇挑战以及近期“新冠疫情”的影响呈现下行趋势，另一方面，国内并购市场则经历了明显的“U型”曲线。在他看来，目前国内并购比较活跃的板块包括新能源、新技术领域，以及涉及知识产权的并购。
在俞律师看来，未来某些行业将在中国进入“并购黄金期”：即市场从几十家左右的参与者竞争、并购到只剩十来家、甚至四、五家的过程。“（进入黄金期的）有新零售、新能源汽车、快递物流等行业。至于技术、医疗领域，则仍需假以时日。”
并购业务逐渐回暖
这样的市场变化也基本主宰了律所并购业务的变化曲线。几位律师表示：目前海外投资并购业务下滑，或按俞律师的话说，“未来不确定性高，暂时还看不清”；而国内并购业务则呈现出触底反弹的回升趋势。
嘉源律师事务所合伙人刘越律师和谭四军律师指出，海外投资并购和外商投资并购业务大幅下滑；上市公司对第三方资产并购以及借壳上市的意愿和几率都有所降低，但是集团内的上市公司重组以及在国资主导下的国有控股上市公司重组项目数量依然可观。目前，嘉源团队正在参与天山股份重组以及一汽夏利重组收购中铁物晟科技等交易项目。
天达共和律师事务所合伙人胡晓华律师介绍道：“受全球经济、疫情黑天鹅事件影响，2020年一季度本所并购业务出现了明显下滑。由于我们服务的主要资本为国有资本，一季度后，境内并购业务逐步回升，并购领域比较集中在生物、创新型医药、新能源、互联网健康、健康养老等领域。”
胡律师继而举出实例：在去年12个月中，天达共和的代表性并购交易包括某客户与东南亚最大私立医院之一共同设立合资公司筹建中外合资高端医院项目，以及国内最大民营风电运营商之一的风电新能源并购项目。
俞卫锋律师则指出了过去12个月中并购项目在体量上的变化：“根据Mergermarket等机构统计，大额并购交易呈下降趋势。但中型市场（mid market）的活跃度，或者说它的波动性更强。换句话说，这类交易交易额比较小，但数量在疫情后的反弹也更明显。”
通力律师事务所在这段时间参与了不少具有代表性的交易，包括作为A+H上市公司洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司(“洛阳钼业”)律师，参与投资收购总价值22.45亿美元的海外多项矿业业务；代表宁德时代参与行业伙伴战略合资合作项目，项目金额达人民币47亿元；为上海电气投资巴基斯坦塔尔煤矿项目提供法律服务等。
挑战与机遇并存
在当前的市场环境下，律所面临着不小挑战。跨境并购方面，刘越律师指出，受到中美关系和疫情影响，海外投资并购市场环境较为恶劣。周成曜律师也表示，外国政府对中国投资的敏感态度，使得很多交易的交割存在不确定性，或者在交易完成后是否会被追溯审查方面存在不确定性，而疫情也会对项目执行造成障碍。
“当前的市场环境要求项目执行团队一方面要关注相关国家对外资审查的法规和政策更新，另一方面，还需要注意新的大环境引发的对交易文件部分条款（如不可抗力和外国政府审查）的关注。细节决定成败，全球危机下的并购项目的执行和安排更加考验律师的经验和水平。”周成曜律师说道。
国内并购方面，谭四军律师指出：“随着科创板和创业板注册制的推行，使得质地较好的标的公司更倾向于直接IPO，从而导致市场上优质并购难度增大，并购标的或多或少存在问题，律所在参与上市公司重大资产重组的过程中，需要和其他中介机构在较短时间内识别标的资产问题，把控风险，一旦在并购完成后‘暴雷’，将面临新《证券法》项下严厉的处罚和高额的民事诉讼赔偿，大大增加了中介机构在上市公司并购重组项目中的风险。”
嘉源律师事务所合伙人刘兴律师也同意这一看法。他说道：“上市公司重组涉及的交易双方撮合难度较往年增强，对中介提出了更高要求。律师既要贴合双方实际需求，又要满足相关法规要求，在设计相关重组方案时也要具备更多灵活性。”
然而，“危”中有“机”似乎是不变的规律。
虽然跨境并购环境对中国企业施加了不少压力，但刘越律师认为依然存在机遇。“疫情造成各发达国家经济衰退，为拯救国内经济，欧盟可能不得不重新调整对中国投资的态度，双方合作有可能回归正常甚至得到加强。伴随国内新冠疫苗预计明年推出，海外并购市场也有望复苏。新冠疫情也暴露出中国企业海外投资和管理中的不足，弥补不足也会给律所带来业务机会。”他说道。
任保华律师也认为，由于全球经济面临困境，国内企业走出去，以及国外市场对中国投资的需求也会增加。“中国的‘一带一路’必将为全球经济复苏做出重要贡献，这也将给律所带来更多业务机会，为‘一带一路’保驾护航。”他指出。
中国率先从疫情中恢复也为并购业务带来了机遇。周成曜律师说道：“中国因为疫情控制得比较好，因此中国市场相比其他市场更加稳健和有可预期性，这对外商投资是个利好消息，尤其是中国做得比较好、或在中国比较有市场的行业，如医疗、消费品、零售、科技等。”
面对挑战和机遇，各律所也做出了相应部署。俞卫锋律师介绍了几个通力目前重点关注的领域。
“我们首先关注高新技术，尤其是带技术知识产权的并购，目前已经设立了在并购中专门做知识产权的团队；第二，我们一直紧跟大医疗大健康概念，大力发展医疗健康领域业务；第三，新能源，尤其是新能源汽车领域也是我们关注的重点；此外，我们还将继续关注房地产——包括物流、IDC、商业物业等——并购，以及新零售行业的并购业务。”
医疗健康也是天达共和重点布局的领域之一。胡晓华律师表示，目前天达共和团队在大健康领域的理论研究，以及项目实操经验和能力均有显著提高，在业内已逐步形成品牌。疫情期间，其团队成功获聘担任华润医疗、国投健康、国药集团、联仁健康医疗大数据科技股份公司、环球通用等细分行业头部企业的常法顾问或入库律师，自4月份至今，持续参与康养、生物医药、医疗行业的并购项目。此外，天达共和还将重点关注数据合规、政府事务、文化体育等领域。
不难看出，虽然2020年带来了一些“至暗时刻”，但律师们依然工作在并购业务最前线，勇迎挑战，把握机遇。正如世辉律师事务所合伙人姜慧芳律师所说：“从外部市场来看，投融资和并购市场呈现两极分化趋势，优秀的企业和并购标的仍然受到追捧。”在这样的环境下，她认为客户会更需要“熟悉客户诉求，能够提供贴合客户需求的交易方案”的并购团队。
不久前，世辉在北京之外开设了新的上海办公室，继续拓展众多业务线。在姜律师看来：“2020年是充满变动和不确定因素的一年，但同样也孕育着不错的发展机遇。我们相信没有一个冬天不可逾越，没有一个春天不会来临。”
亚洲其他市场情况
日本和韩国：2020年上半年，日本和韩国发展轨迹类似。第一季度发展缓慢，第二季度则较为活跃。实际上，按交易量计，日本和韩国是第二季度的其他主要市场。就交易额而言，日本也位居其他主要市场之列。
2020年第一季度，日本以317宗并购交易的位居交易量榜首，占亚太地区总交易量的22.7%。
根据GlobalData在第二季度的排名，其排名下滑至第二位，但这并非说明其缺乏活跃度。5月份，由于当月宣布的大额交易，日本市场的交易额大幅攀升。
2020年上半年，韩国并购活动录得164宗交易，价值148亿美元，创2013年以来最低水平。
但是第二季度的交易额环比增长了86.7%，显示出自新冠疫情危机中复苏的迹象。
Mergermarket称，“今年上半年，制药、医疗和生物技术领域的并购活动特别活跃，共录得14宗交易，价值25亿美元，同比增长3.7倍（2019年上半年：6.61亿美元，13宗交易）。这些行业的上市公司在2020年第二季度表现强劲。”
展望未来，由于投资者对股市快速复苏以及广泛的市场流动性的情绪有所改善，韩国市场下半年交易量预计也将有所改善。
东南亚：根据Mergermarket的数据，2019年，东南亚市场录得402宗交易，总价值668亿美元。
尽管新冠疫情肆虐，但截至2020年8月17日，东南亚市场仍然录得190宗交易，价值337亿美元，约占2019年全年交易额的一半。
上半年东南亚并购活动有所放缓，尽管该市场的并购交易额创下自2001年以来在Mergermarket的最高记录。
GlobalData估计，东南亚地区2020年第一季度料将实现交易额的增长。该公司援引了Charoen Pokphand以106亿美元收购Tesco在泰国和马来西亚的业务的交易，该宗交易占2020年3月份交易总额的很大一部分。
但这实际上并不表示2020年第一季度的交易活动正在回升。
“亚太地区3月份的交易额有所增长，主要是由于该月宣布了一宗高额交易，如果将其排除在外，当月交易额其实同样下降。交易活跃的原因可能是由于新冠疫情导致收购方采取了谨慎的态度。” Bose称。
新冠疫情对交易的影响在第二季度完全显现出来。
由于疫情爆发后多个国家执行严格封锁，这些地区的并购活动在4月和5月陷入停滞。下半年的并购交易可能会继续低迷，因为预计企业将在资产负债表上保留更多现金以应对不确定的经济状况。
在2020年的交易中，消费行业占了一大部分，总价值达127亿美元，占37.8%。
紧随其后的是房地产行业，共达成11宗交易，价值99亿美元，占东南亚所有交易的29.5%，是2020年迄今为止的第二大行业。
由于新冠疫情爆发，东南亚的外商投资交易量和交易额均下降。
印度：尽管发生了新冠疫情，但印度2020年上半年的并购活动交易额仍同比增长14.55%，达到435.4亿美元。Mergermarket表示，这在很大程度上要归功于印度最大的电信运营商Jio Platforms在过去三个月中向10个投资者进行了一系列股权出售。然而，交易量则同比下降24.69%至243宗。
“由于新冠疫情，2020年上半年，印度的并购活动交易量减少。下半年，印度的交易量可能会进一步下降，原因是金融投资者普遍担忧该国的国内经济放缓以及和疫情可能再次爆发有关的不确定性。”
但是，GlobalData表示，单就2020年第二季度而言，印度的并购交易额在亚太地区仍排名前五位。
由于办公室、银行、法院和政府部门关闭或工作人员有限，正在进行的交易在获得监管和第三方批准方面可能会面临严重的延迟。由于尽职调查可能无法进行，因此处于初步阶段的交易也可能会延迟。
“2020年下半年，基础设施、可再生能源（太阳能）、药品和医疗保健等领域可能会吸收到投资，因为当前处于后期的交易可能即将结束。JB Chemicals已经以6.17亿美元的价格将其多数股权出售给KKR。该交易已于本月初宣布。”Mergermarket称。
由于对在线教育和在线金融交易的需求激增，教育科技和金融科技领域可能在今年下半年继续吸引投资。这些领域的参与者可能会寻求筹集资金，以满足对其产品不断增长的需求。
Mergermarket表示：“印度风险投资行业的发展继续严重依赖国际资本。教育、金融科技和电子商务领域为外国企业提供了重要的投资机会，但与中国的边界紧张局势可能会影响投资流量。”
ALB M&A Rankings 2020
The year 2020 will probably go down as one of the most tumultuous years in history. With the world seemingly on hold due to the COVID-19 pandemic, most activities and industries have ground to a halt. Since then, it’s been a very mixed bag of performances for M&A around the world.
According to data and analytics company GlobalData, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) deal activity in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region have been “inconsistent” during the first half of 2020.
GlobalData's Financial Deals Database shows that the number of announced M&A deals decreased from 494 in February 2020 to 457 in March 2020. However, the value of deals went up from $24.1 billion to $28.6 billion for the same period.
In Q2, the number of announced M&A deals went from 505 in April then decreased to 493 in May. But it then rebounded to 564 in June.
It tracked a similar down-down-up performance in terms of deal value. The value of deals has decreased from $33.9 billion in April to $31.5 billion in May, before increasing to $35.6 billion in June.
Despite the global situation, China continues to top the region both in terms of volume as well as value.
China took the top spot in value terms with $16.5 billion (accounting for 19.5 percent of total APAC deal value) in Q1 2020. "China, where the COVID-19 outbreak started, started opening up its economy in March, which helped it to witness decent M&A activity,” says Aurojyoti Bose, lead analyst at GlobalData.
According to Mergermarket, Mainland China and Hong Kong SAR started to recover in the second quarter of 2020 after bringing the pandemic under control, “but outbreaks in Europe, the U.S. and other regions dampened consumer demand and continue to disrupt supply chains.”
The resumption of production after the COVID-19 outbreak was brought under control has gradually warmed up foreign investment activities. But many factors continue to challenge China’s economic expansion; the COVID-19 epidemic and escalating tension between Beijing and Washington led to a rush of deal-making activity in the technology industry.
Nonetheless, the Chinese government unveiled a series of policies to stimulate domestic demand to accelerate economic recovery, as well as counterbalance a potential drop in exports.
MARKET VOLATILITY
Over the past 12 months, China's outbound, inbound and domestic M&A markets have experienced volatility and challenges.
The outbound M&A market has been notably sluggish. Roy Zhang, partner at Shihui Partners, says: “Whether it is the government's ongoing efforts to strengthen supervision of capital outbound, or the uncertainty intensified by strained China-U.S. relations, the overall outbound M&A activity in China has been on a downward trajectory since 2017."
Liu Yue, partner at Jia Yuan Law Offices, has also seen unprecedented challenges to China's outbound M&A over the past 12 months. The regulatory environment within foreign markets has created obstacles for Chinese investors.
Private companies whose operations were hit by the pandemic have become strapped for cash and less willing to invest, and they cannot conduct site visits or have face-to-face interactions due to social distancing. Even if they intended to propose a deal, outbound M&A seems almost impossible now.
On the other hand, inbound M&A still looks more promising than outbound M&A despite a decline in deal volume.
"Although inbound M&A is also facing headwinds, we see promise overall as China recovered from the pandemic earlier and has further opened up its market," Zhang explains.
Aaron Zhou, partner at Han Kun Law Offices, points out that China has implemented a new foreign investment law and updated the negative list for foreign investment access. The negative list has reduced the number of restricted industries from 40 to 33 across the country, and from 37 to 30 in the pilot free trade zone.
Meanwhile, domestic M&A has fluctuated in tandem with the pandemic over the past 12 months.
Ren Baohua, partner at Jia Yuan Law Offices, recalls: “Domestic M&A activity remained relatively stable in the second half of 2019 then hit a pause as the pandemic unfolded. From January to April this year, audit, assessment and due diligence required for M&A transactions could not be carried out and have only returned to normal since May. Since then, M&A activity has rebounded and led to an active market.”
David Yu, partner at Llinks Law Offices, says domestic M&A has experienced a U-shaped recovery. From his observation, domestic M&A remains active in new energy, new technology, and deals that involve intellectual property rights.
ON THE REBOUND
Such market trends have affected law firms’ M&A business. Several lawyers agree that outbound M&A business has dropped, and Yu even says the “prospects are unclear,” while domestic M&A activity has rebounded from its slump.
Liu Yue and Tan Sijun, partners at Jia Yuan Law Offices, say outbound M&A and foreign M&A businesses have dropped significantly, and listed companies have become less willing or likely to acquire third-party assets, or to launch a backdoor listing. However, the restructuring of listed companies within a group and state-owned enterprises is still in strong demand.
Hu Xiaohua, partner at East & Concord Partners, says: “Due to the global economic situation and the pandemic, our M&A business has dropped significantly in the first quarter of 2020. As our main clients are state-owned capital investment companies, our domestic M&A business picked up gradually after the first quarter. M&A activity has mainly concentrated on biotech, innovative pharma, new energy, Internet healthcare, and senior care.”
On the other hand, Llinks’ Yu looks at the M&A deal volume over the past 12 months. “According to data from Mergermarket, the number of large M&A transactions was on the decline. However, the market for mid-sized deals was more active as it was also more volatile. In other words, the deal value of this type of transaction was relatively small, but there was a notable rebound in the number of such transaction after the pandemic,” he explains.
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
The current situation has given rise to many new challenges for law firms. Jia Yuan’s Liu Yue, talking about cross-border M&A, says the China-U.S. relations and pandemic have made things difficult for outbound M&A. Han Kun’s Zhou also notes that the cautious attitude of foreign governments toward Chinese investment has made it uncertain as to whether a lot of deals can be closed, or whether regulators will retrospectively review deals. The pandemic has also made their execution difficult.
"The current circumstances require the firm to pay attention to the relevant country’s regulatory and policy updates on foreign investment review, as well as certain clauses in the contract (such as force majeure and foreign government review) triggered by new developments. The devil is in the details. Executing M&A deals in such circumstances will test the lawyers’ experience and capability,” Zhou says.
Speaking of domestic M&A, Jia Yuan’s Tan says: "The introduction of the STAR board and the registration-based IPO system on the ChiNext board have encouraged promising companies to go public, therefore making it difficult to find good M&A targets. The target company often has issues to some extent. Law firms need to work with other intermediaries to identify issues relating to the target company’s assets to control risks in a rather short time when they participate in a listed company’s restructuring.”
Liu Xing, partner at Jia Yuan Law Offices, also agrees, saying: “It has become more difficult to match a buyer and seller during the restructuring of a listed company, and intermediaries are facing higher requirements. Lawyers need to meet not only the actual needs of both parties, but also the requirements outlined in the law. They need to be more flexible when orchestrating the restructuring.”
However, in every crisis lies opportunity.
Although the environment for cross-border M&A has not been favourable for Chinese companies, Liu Yue believes there are still opportunities. "The pandemic has triggered an economic downturn in many developed countries. To restore the economy, the EU may have no choice but to change its attitude towards Chinese investment. Bilateral cooperation may return to normal and even grow stronger. The pandemic also exposed the Chinese companies’ weakness in overseas investment and management and making up for this means business opportunities for law firms,” he says.
Jia Yuan’s Ren also believes the global economic crisis will prompt more Chinese companies to look beyond its home market and foreign players to seek Chinese investment. “China’s Belt and Road initiative will make a significant contribution to global economic recovery and bring more business opportunities to law firms, who will support the initiative,” he explains.
China, as one of the first countries to start recovering from the pandemic also brings opportunities to M&A business. “As China successfully contained the pandemic, the Chinese market is more stable and predictable than other markets, which is good news to foreign investors as well as industries that fare better in China, such as healthcare, consumer goods, retail and technology,” Han Kun’s Zhou says.
Law firms are preparing themselves for the challenges and opportunities. Llinks’ Yu talks about areas that his firm is now focusing on.
"First, we pay attention to high technology, especially M&A deals that involve intellectual property rights. Second, due to the pandemic, we are closely monitoring the medical and healthcare industry. Third, we will continue to keep an eye on power and energy storage in the new energy sector. Furthermore, we will continue to focus on M&A in real estate especially in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions, as well as M&A in new retail," he notes.
Although 2020 has been a time of adversity, lawyers have remained at the forefront of M&A activity to embrace the challenges and seize the chances such adversity creates. As Jiang Huifang, partner at Shihui Partners, puts it: “The year of 2020 is full of change and uncertainties, but it also provides growth opportunities. The obstacles will be overcome, and opportunities will arise.”
OTHER ASIAN MARKETS
Japan and Korea: Both Japan and South Korea had a similar trajectory in 1H20. A slow Q1 followed by a more brisk Q2. Japan and South Korea are the other top markets by deal volume for Q2. Japan also ranked among the other top markets in terms of value.
In the first quarter of 2020, Japan occupied the top position in terms of deal volume with 317 M&A deals. Those made up 22.7 percent of the total APAC deal volume.
It slid to second position based on GlobalData’s rankings for Q2, but that’s not to say it was lacking. In the month of May, Japan saw a huge leap in value terms on the back of big-ticket deals announced during the month.
South Korea M&A activity there in 1H20 recorded 164 transactions worth $14.8 billion, the lowest first-half of the year value since 2013.
But the value of the deals during Q2 increased by 86.7 percent compared to the first quarter, showing signs of recovery from the COVID-19 crisis.
Southeast Asia: According to Mergermarket, Southeast Asia recorded 402 deals worth a total of $66.8 billion in 2019.
Despite the pandemic, Southeast Asia still managed 190 deals worth $33.7 billion of August 17, 2020, about half the value of the whole of 2019 generated.
The region’s M&A activity slowed down in the first half of the year, despite having recorded its highest Q1 deal value on Mergermarket record since 2001.
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on deal-making fully emerged in the second quarter.
M&A activity in that corner of the world ground to a halt in April and May when several countries were under strict lockdown following the COVID-19 outbreak.
The consumer sector made up most of the deals amongst the 2020 batch. It was valued at a total of $12.7 billion and made up a whopping 37.8 percent of the market share. Following that are the 11 deals in the real estate sector worth $9.9 billion that made up 29.5 percent of all the deals in Southeast Asia, marking it as the second biggest sector in 2020 so far.
India: Indian M&A activity for the first half of 2020 recorded a year-on-year increase in deal value of 14.55 percent to $43.54 billion, despite the COVID-19 pandemic. Mergermarket says this is largely thanks to a series of stake sales by Jio Platforms – India’s largest telecom operator – to 10 investors over the past three months. However, deal count plunged by 24.69 percent year-on-year to 243 transactions.
GlobalData said Indian M&A deals are ranked among the top five markets within Asia Pacific in terms of value during Q2 2020.
Ongoing deals might face significant delay in obtaining regulatory and third-party approvals as offices, banks, courts, and government departments are either closed or working with limited staff.
“Infrastructure, renewables (solar energy), pharmaceuticals, and healthcare may attract investments in 2H20 as deals that are at advance stages may be closed,” says Mergermarket.
EdTech and Fintech segments might continue to attract investment in the second half of the year thanks to a surge in demand for online education and online financial transactions. Players in these segments may seek to raise capital to cater to the increasing demand for their products.
To contact the editorial team, please email ALBEditor@thomsonreuters.com.