By Pete Sweeney

Companies gambling on yuan appreciation are distorting Chinese trade statistics, creating a monetary policy headache for Beijing officials and complicating government plans to liberalise the capital account.

Speculative inflows disguised as trade are causing concern because they aggravate a recent trend - the sudden resurgence of hot money inflows. Some $125 billion poured into China in January and February after nine consecutive months of outflows, exclusive of hot money masquerading as trade.

Companies that cannot legally move money into the country for the purpose of currency speculation often try to circumvent China's capital controls by overstating trade invoices, thereby disguising investment funds as payments for goods and services sold overseas, according to economists.

These firms are betting on an extended rally of China's currency, which has gained more than 3 percent against the dollar since the third quarter of 2012 to hit a record high last month. Now that that is even distorting trade data.

To keep the exchange rate from appreciating too quickly in the face of such bullishness, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has stepped up its meddling in the domestic forex market, despite repeated public promises from regulators to stay on the sidelines.

This intervention has caused Chinese foreign exchange reserves to rise by more than $128 billion in the first quarter of 2013, compared with $130 billion for all of 2012, by extension pouring a tide of yuan into China's interbank market and applying downward pressure to short-term interest rates.

The central bank, aiming to keep rates under control, has been forced to adapt the way it manages liquidity, which has rattled the country's equity and money markets.

"If this trend is sustained, it complicates monetary policy; it adds liquidity to the economy which then inflates money and credit growth and property," says Robert Subbaraman, chief economist at Nomura in Hong Kong. "The risks are that it might get authorities to think twice about how fast they open up the capital account."

Camouflaged investment

Official trade data last month showed that China's exports grew by an annual 10 percent in March, appearing to stabilise after two months of strong performance, but economists were quick to question the credibility of the figures.

"Compared to the rest of Asia, China stood out like a sore thumb," says Subbaraman. He adds that while East Asian countries' exports usually rise and fall at similar rates, in recent months, China's 10 percent annual growth rate far exceeded neighbours such as Taiwan (3.3 percent) and South Korea (0.3 percent).

Most skeptics took particular note of the apparent explosive growth (over 90 percent) in exports to Hong Kong and 300-plus percent growth to bonded customs zones, despite the fact that export demand from the United States and Europe - ordinarily the ultimate destination for such exports - remained tepid.

Statistics from Hong Kong and Chinese customs have also fallen out of sync, with Chinese customs reporting more exports to Hong Kong than Hong Kong customs is reporting imports from China.

Lu Ting, China economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, pointed out in a research note distributed to clients that the growth of exports in high-value integrated circuits was particularly suspicious since such products are cheap to ship and their value is "easily manipulated.”

"There are no exogenous factors that help to explain why the fluctuations have been so large in China-Hong Kong trade in February and March," says Fredrik Erixon, director of the European Centre for International Political Economy, a think-tank in Brussels.

"The transactions between China and Hong Kong are just the symptom of a larger problem."

Zheng Yuesheng, spokesman of China's General Administration of Customs, says officials are investigating "abnormal trade growth with Hong Kong" and will take regulatory steps if needed.

Controlling speculation

What those measures might be is an open question.

Historically, regulators have struggled to prevent the opening of China's capital account from becoming a channel for exchange rate speculation. Destabilising speculative flows would put China's macroeconomic stability at risk and discourage the increased usage of the yuan in trade, a key policy goal.

"If RMB is accepted in international transactions due to reasons which are not related with speculation and arbitrage, the internationalisation of the RMB should be welcome," says Yu Yongding, economist at the China Academy of Social Sciences. "Otherwise, the internationalisation is false, is something else, and is not sustainable. As soon as expectations change, unwinding will begin."

In Hong Kong, offshore yuan continues to trade at a premium to the onshore spot market, implying offshore investors expect it to keep rising. But dealers in China's interbank market question the sustainability of those expectations, given the country's economic recovery remains tenuous, being very dependent on a sustained recovery in genuine export demand.

Several money dealers in Shanghai, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorised to speak to the media, told Reuters they are already seeing signs that speculative inflows are slowing.

"The more money can come in, the more it can go out as well," says Subbaraman of Nomura. "If China slows down more than people expect, it could cause capital flight."

人民币投机恐影响改革进程
作者：Pete Sweeney

押注人民币升值的公司正在扭曲中国的贸易数据，给中国官员造成货币政策方面的困扰，也使中国开放资本项目的计划复杂化。

披上“贸易”外衣的投机性资金流入正在引发担忧，因为它令近期热钱流入骤增的趋势雪上加霜。在之前连续九个月外流后，今年前两个月约有1,250亿美元的资金涌入中国，这还不包括伪装成贸易的热钱。

经济学家表示，那些不能通过合法途径把资金转入中国进行外汇投机的公司，通常通过虚开贸易发票金额的方式，把投资资金伪装成商品和服务的付款，从而绕开官方的资本控制。

这些公司下注人民币将继续升值。从2012年3季度以来，人民币已经升值超过3%，在上个月达到历史最高。现在，这甚至已经在扭曲贸易数据。

尽管监管部门多次公开承诺不会入市干预，但面对这种“牛市心态”，为了防止人民币汇率过快升值，中国人民银行已经加大了对国内外汇市场的干预力度。

央行干预导致2013年第1季度中国外汇储备增加超过1,280亿美元，而2012年全年仅增加1,300亿美元。中国人民银行向中国银行间市场注入大量人民币，给短期利率施加下行压力。

央行为了保持对汇率的控制，不得不改变流动性管理的方式，这就打击了国内的股市和货币市场。

“如果这一趋势持续，将使货币政策复杂化。它增加了经济的流动性，造成货币超发、新增信贷和房地产价格上涨。”野村驻香港首席经济学家Robert Subbaraman表示。

“风险在于它可能迫使政府重新审视资本项目开放的步伐。”

伪装投资

上个月的官方贸易数据显示，三月份中国出口同比增长10%，似乎在经历了两个月的强劲表现后企稳。但经济学家很快质疑数据的可信度。

“与亚洲其它国家相比，中国太一枝独秀了。”Subbaraman说。他表示，东亚国家的出口增长或下降幅度通常相似，不过近几个月中国10%的出口年增速，远超过同期的台湾（增长3.3%）和韩国（增长0.3%）。

大多数怀疑者都特别注意到对香港和保税区出口的爆发式增长，对两者的出口增速分别超过90%和300%，而通常出口的最终目的地—美国和欧洲的需求仍然低迷。

香港和内地海关的统计数据也不一致，其中内地海关报告的对港出口量大于香港海关报告的从内地进口量。

美银美林中国经济学家陆挺在一份向客户分发的研究报告中指出，高价值集成电路出口的增长尤其可疑，因为这类产品的运输成本低，其价值“易被操纵”。

位于布鲁塞尔的智库欧洲国际政治经济研究中心主任Fredrik Erixon说：“没有外部因素能够帮助解释，为什么二月和三月内地香港间的贸易波动如此之大。”

“内地和香港之间的贸易数据仅是更大问题表现出的冰山一角。”

海关总署新闻发言人郑跃声表示，官方正在调查“与香港间贸易异常的增长”，必要时将采取监管措施。

控制投机

上述措施会是什么，尚不得而知。

从历史来看，监管机构很难防止中国资本项目的开放成为汇率投机的渠道。作为不稳定因素的投机性资金将给中国的宏观经济稳定带来风险，并且不利于人民币在贸易中的更多使用，而后者是一个重要的政策目标。

中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所所长、经济学家余永定在一封给路透社的电子邮件中表示：“如果人民币不是仅仅因为与投机和套利相关的原因而被接受为国际结算货币，那么人民币国际化才是个好事。”

“否则国际化就是个假象，且不可持续。只要预期一变，平仓就会开始。”

在香港，离岸人民币汇价仍比内地现货市场价格高，暗示离岸投资者预期人民币将继续升值。但鉴于中国经济复苏力度仍然偏弱，并且非常依赖真实出口需求的持续复苏，内地银行间市场的交易员对上述预期能否持续表示怀疑。

几位因为未获得授权接受媒体采访而要求隐去姓名的上海货币市场交易员对路透社表示，他们已看到投机性资金流入放缓的迹象。

野村的Subbaraman说：“资金能够进来的越多，流出的也可能会越多。”

“如果中国经济放缓的速度快于预期，则可能会引发资本外逃。”

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