4月初，第一季度全球并购市场报告陆续发布，数据显示整体市场表现依旧低迷。伴随中国与世界“重新连接”，不久前公布的一季度GDP数据也给市场带来更多信心，但并购专家告诉ALB，中国并购交易的复苏仍需时日。
路孚特不久前公布的报告显示，第一季度全球并购交易总额为5800亿美元，同比下降44%，是2001年以来最大的同比降幅。即便和挑战重重的2022年第四季度相比，这一数据也下降了23%。从交易数量来看，2023年第一季度全球宣布了近12700笔交易，同比下降17%，也是三年来的最低水平。
在亚太地区，第一季度并购交易总额达1447亿美元，同比下降23%，成为2020年以来第一季度新低。
路孚特还按照第一季度交易金额，列出了各区域的并购市场法律顾问机构前25名。
在“已公布亚洲（除日本）参与的并购交易”法律顾问榜单中，排名前五的分别为方达律师事务所、富而德律师事务所、年利达律师事务所、安理国际律师事务所、谢尔曼·思特灵律师事务所。
在“已公布中国参与的并购交易”法律顾问榜单中，方达、世达国际律师事务所、凯易国际律师事务所名列前三，谢尔曼·思特灵和汉坤律师事务所并列第四，第六至十名分别为伟凯律师事务所、锦天城律师事务所、国枫律师事务所、中伦律师事务所、美国威尔逊律师事务所。
上述中国交易名单中，前十名里，方达、凯易的名次与去年一致，世达则由去年第九名上升至亚军，汉坤由去年第13升至今年第四；其余六家律所排名均实现20名以上的大幅提升。
Q1中国并购市场是否出现预期反弹？
盛林燕，美国威尔逊律师事务所资深顾问律师：据Wind 数据，2023年第一季度中国并购市场（包含与中国企业相关的跨境并购交易）首次公告了1701起并购事件，规模约4136亿元人民币，同比下降约12.8%。
从并购规模分布来看，交易金额在10亿元以上的并购事件占总体交易规模约74%，其中100亿元以上的并购事件共有5件，占总体交易规模约36.5%。
从前述数据看来，2023年第一季度的中国并购交易市场尚未彻底回暖，甚至较2022年第一季度同比交易规模有一定下滑。
李雄，锦天城律师事务所高级合伙人：由于去年中国并购交易表现异常疲软，实际上，2023年第一季度的公开并购交易仍未完全复苏。2022年，几乎所有行业的并购交易价值都有所下降，只有与工业相关的交易有所上升，其中可能集中在国有企业改革、国有企业驱动的产业升级、资本重组和大型国有企业集团之间的整合。
当然，我们也看到了2023年并购市场的一些积极恢复的迹象，包括：随着新冠肺炎限制的取消，此前被抑制的需求得到了释放；最近政府刺激投资的措施；中国国家领导层应对房地产危机的措施；以及放松对互联网经济的限制等。
盛林燕：部分企业在疫情后可能会寻求兼并和收购以实现扩张、降低成本以及优化供应链等目标；而一些企业可能因疫情遇到财务困境，从而成为并购的目标，这些因素可能导致并购交易市场的活跃。
总的来说，市场回暖可能无法一蹴而就。我们预计2023年下半年的并购交易市场可能会强于2023年上半年。
中国哪些产业及“玩家”将引领市场的恢复？
李雄：买家正在调整策略，将重点放在被认为受到中国政府政策青睐的行业。买家也变得更加挑剔，倾向于能源、技术、医疗保健、工业和消费行业的收购。
随着中国经济的重新开放，中国公司、特别是电动汽车和消费品领域的公司，将在2023年增加并购活动，以扩大规模并提高盈利能力。
我们预计将在2023年迅速复苏的一个行业是中国的生命科学和医疗保健行业。该行业的新兴趋势是，更多的资本流入私立综合医院，增加了在二三线城市的部署，以及医疗美容、牙科治疗、辅助生殖和儿科等领域的专科医院，这些医院由于其标准化的运营模式、高服务可复制性和区域扩张而快速增长。该行业将继续通过促进原始创新和增加外国投资来升级，会有两大趋势：国内外资本将创新、协调发展模式，外商投资公司将加速本土化。
盛林燕：引领市场活力恢复的“玩家”，可能包括以下：（1）风险投资公司、私募股权公司和投资银行会积极参与并购活动。由于美元私募基金目前对市场仍处于观望状态，人民币基金和国有基金的并购和投资动作可能会更加活跃；（2）大型企业和跨国公司可能会寻求兼并收购以扩大市场份额、整合资源、优化业务结构。据我们了解，部分跨国公司在积极寻求优质标的作一些早期投资；（3）初创公司和独角兽可能因资金、技术支持、市场渠道和人才需求而寻求并购机会；（4）政府和国有企业为推动国家战略目标和产业升级亦积极参与并购活动。
跨境并购市场前景如何？
李雄：跨境并购需要时间才能逐渐恢复，但我们在第一季度已感受到客户在过去一年受到疫情压制的海外并购需求有所反弹。
地缘政治因素将对2023年的境外并购继续产生一定的制动作用，这在很大程度上取决于中美关系的发展状态。不确定性将特别影响全球大型私募股权通过美元投资的意愿，他们迅速重返中国市场的意愿仍然不确定。
盛林燕： 2022年，中国境内的产业整合是并购的主流，境内财务投资者和战略投资者都更加青睐境内标的。2023年，境内并购仍将占据主导地位，而境外并购在中国与世界重新连接后也预计会有所增长。
我们观察到，中国投资者在积极寻找境外收购标的，但其主观上仍然对收购标的估值和交易确定性持谨慎态度，交易时间（包括尽职调查的时间和锁定交易融资的时间）也较之过去变长。地缘政治因素造成的不确定性也促使不少企业或投资人把目光从美国转向欧洲、东南亚等市场。
同样值得一提的是，外资对中国并购市场的参与预计在2023年也将有所发展。目前中国政府在逐步放宽对境外投资者在境内投资的限制，但美国政府也在不断收紧对美国投资者在中国投资的管控，美国投资者在中国的投资态度仍不明朗。然而我们相信，逐渐复苏的中国市场和放开的外商投资政策也将吸引美国之外的其他境外地区投资者，尤其是中东地区的投资者，更加积极地在中国进行投资。
中国并购市场还有哪些趋势值得关注？
盛林燕：从行业维度看：
• 工业和制造业并购实力与机会并存：一方面，财务投资者对具有高门槛和核心技术能力的先进制造产业较为青睐，预计将增加在半导体、电子装置和高精度原件等战略性产业的投资；此外，财务投资者通过并购获得收购标的控制权、进行产业整合的案例屡见不鲜，财务投资者不再仅满足于少数股权投资。另一方面，工业和制造业的头部玩家因其资金实力，可能在兼并和收购方面的步子会迈得更为大胆。
• 数字化和技术驱动的并购：更多企业寻求通过兼并和收购来获得创新技术、增强竞争力并拓展市场份额；并购市场参与者越来越关注网络安全风险、对网络安全技术领域的投资热情也更加高涨；企业也可能利用大数据、人工智能和机器学习等技术来提高并购的效率和成功率。
• 健康和生命科学领域方兴未艾：2023年，该领域的投资预计还是财务投资人主导；制药行业现金流充足的龙头公司和融资通道不顺畅的初创公司可能会通过并购实现双赢。根据我们的观察，中国生物医药公司预计会通过并购来扩张海外市场、购买技术升级产品线、或向中国市场引进新的产品并丰富其产品组合。
• 能源和电力行业以并购促进产业转型和升级：2023年，为实现传统能源结构调整和新能源战略转型，预计能源和电力行业将继续剥离不符合节能减排、低碳环保发展目标的资产，同时通过并购整合新的技术和优质产能资源。
从环境、社会和治理（ESG）因素看：
ESG因素在并购决策中起到越来越重要的作用。投资人在并购前期更加关注目标公司可持续性和社会责任的表现，加强了对标的公司的ESG风险和机会的审查，一些国际投资基金在对中国进行投资时正在逐步采用国际ESG标准。拥有良好的ESG信誉的资产在出售时可能估值更高，甚至提升ESG表现成为一些企业进行并购交易的动因。
从PE/VC退出角度看：
预计财务投资者退出被投项目的需求将进一步释放，市场上将出现更多优质标的。2023年，随着IPO相较于整体出售在完成难度和公司估值等方面的优势弱化，整体出售在财务投资者退出方式中占的比重会进一步升高。
Q1 China M&A Review: Headwinds persist while chances are around the corner
Global M&A reviews for the first quarter of 2023 were released in early April, showing that the overall market performance remained sluggish. The Q1 China GDP figures have brought the market more confidence as China "reconnects" with the world, but M&A experts tell ALB that a recovery in Chinese deal making activities is still some way off.
Global mergers & acquisitions activity totaled $580 billion during the first quarter of 2023, showing a year-over-year drop of 44 percent, as shown in a recent Refinitiv report. This is the largest percentage decrease since 2001. Even compared with the embattled Q4 2022, the figure was down 23 percent. By number of worldwide deals, nearly 12,700 deals were announced during Q1 2023, a decrease of 17 percent compared to year-ago levels and a three-year low.
Asia Pacific deal making totaled $144.7 billion during the first quarter of 2023, a 23 percent decrease and the slowest first quarter since 2020.
Refinitiv report also ranked the top 25 M&A legal advisors by region in terms of transaction value.
The top five in the “Any Asia (ex. Japan) Involvement Announced” list are Fangda Partners, Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer, Linklaters, Allen & Overy, and Shearman & Sterling LLP.
Fangda, Skadden and Kirkland & Ellis ranked top three in the “Any China Involvement Announced” category. Shearman & Sterling and Han Kun Law Offices tied for fourth place, followed by White & Case LLP, AllBright Law Offices, Grandway Law Offices, Zhong Lun Law Firm and Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati.
Among the top 10 advisors listed above, the positions of Fangda and Kirkland & Ellis remain the same as last year; Skadden rose to second place from ninth place last year, and Han Kun rose to fourth place from 13th last year. The remaining six firms all made significant increases by at least 20 places in the ranking.
Is there a rebound in China's M&A?
Jill Sheng, Of Counsel, Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati: In Q1 2023, China's M&A market (including cross-border M&A deals related to Chinese companies) reported 1,701 activities, with a value of about 413.6 billion yuan, down about 12.8 percent year on year, according to Wind.
From the composition of scales, events with transaction value of more than 1 billion yuan accounted for about 74 percent of the total value. There were five M&A activities with transaction value of over 10 billion yuan, accounting for about 36.5% of the total.
According to the data, China's M&A market has not fully recovered in the first quarter of 2023 and has even declined in deal value compared to the first quarter of 2022.
Carl Li, Senior Partner, AllBright Law Offices: The announced deals have not been fully recovered in the first quarter of 2023, due to the exceptionally soft performances for M&A deals in China last year. In 2022, M&A deal values fell in almost all sectors, mitigated only by some uptick in industrials-related deals, which focused on SOE reforms, SOE-driven industrial upgrades, re-capitalizations and integrations between large SOE groups.
However, we see some positive signs for 2023. These include the release of pent-up demand with the removal of COVID-19 restrictions; recent government measures to stimulate investment; measures from China’s leadership to address the real estate crisis; and relaxation of curbs on the internet economy.
Jill Sheng: Some enterprises may seek mergers and acquisitions after the pandemic to achieve expansion, reduce cost and optimize supply chain; some others could become targets of mergers and acquisitions due to financial difficulties caused by the pandemic. These could lead to a more active M&A market.
Overall, the recovery may not happen overnight. We expect the M&A market to be stronger in the second half of 2023 than in the first half.
Which industries and "players" will lead the recovery?
Carl Li: Buyers are fine-tuning their strategies to focus on sectors perceived to be favored by Chinese government policy. Buyers have also become more selective, gravitating toward acquisitions in the energy, technology, healthcare, industrial and consumer sectors.
Chinese companies, particularly those in the fields of electric vehicles and consumer products, will increase M&As activities in 2023 to boost scale and enhance profitability following the reopening of China’s economy.
Another sector we expect to pick up quickly in 2023 is China's life sciences and healthcare sector. The sector's emerging trends are more capital flowing into private general hospitals, with increased deployments in second- and third-tier cities, and specialist hospitals in areas like medical cosmetology, dental treatment, assisted reproduction, and pediatrics, which have seen rapid growth due to their standardized operating models, high service replicability, and regional expansion. The industry will continue to upgrade by boosting original innovation and increasing foreign investment, which will be characterized by two major trends: an innovative, coordinated development model for domestic and foreign capital and accelerated localization of foreign-invested companies.
Jill Sheng: The "players" leading the recovery are likely to include: (1) Venture capital firms, private equity firms and investment banks actively participate in M&A activities. As dollar PE funds remain on the sidelines of the market, yuan funds and state-owned funds are likely to be more active in M&As and investments; (2) Large enterprises and multinational corporations may seek M&As to expand market share, integrate resources and optimize business structure. As far as we know, some MNCs are actively seeking high-quality targets for early investment. (3) Startups and unicorns may seek M&A opportunities due to funding, technical support, market access and talent needs; (4) The government and state-owned enterprises also actively participate in M&As to promote national strategic goals and industrial upgrading.
What is the outlook for the cross-border M&A?
Carl Li: Cross-border M&A needs time to recover gradually, but we have been receiving much more legal service requests for the overseas M&A projects in Q1.
Geopolitical considerations will have some braking effect on M&A in 2023, depending a lot upon ongoing developments in the relationship between China and the US. Uncertainties will especially impact the larger global PEs investing through US funds. Their willingness to return quickly to the market is still questionable.
Jill Sheng: In 2022, domestic industrial integration is the mainstream of M&As in China. Financial and strategic investors prefer domestic targets. Domestic M&A will remain dominant in 2023, while outbound M&A is also expected to grow as China reconnects with the world.
Chinese investors are actively looking for overseas acquisition targets, but they are still cautious about valuation and deal certainty, and the time for due diligence and time to lock in deals are longer than in the past. The uncertainty caused by geopolitical factors has also prompted many companies or investors to turn their eyes from the US to Europe, Southeast Asia and other markets.
It is also worth mentioning that foreign participation in China's M&A is expected to grow in 2023. The Chinese government is gradually easing restrictions on foreign investors, but the US government is tightening controls on US investment in China. The attitude of US investors towards China remains unclear. However, we believe that the gradual recovery of the Chinese market and the loosening investment policies will attract investors from outside the US, especially those from the Middle East, to invest more actively in China.
Any other trends worth watching in China-involved M&A?
Jill Sheng: From the dimension of industries:
• Industrial and manufacturing M&A strength and opportunities coexist. On the one hand, investors prefer advanced manufacturing industries with high thresholds and core technical capabilities, and are expected to increase their investment in strategic industries such as semiconductors, electronic devices and high-precision components. In addition, it is common for investors to acquire control of the acquisition target and carry out industrial integration through M&As. On the other hand, the top players in industry and manufacturing are likely to be more aggressive in M&A because of their financial strength.
• Digital and technology-driven mergers and acquisitions. More companies are looking to acquire innovative technologies, enhance competitiveness and expand market share through M&A. Market participants are paying more attention to cyber security risks and investing more enthusiastically in the field. Companies may also use technologies such as big data, artificial intelligence and machine learning to improve the efficiency and success rate of M&A.
• The health and life sciences sector is booming. Investment in this sector is expected to remain dominated by financial investors in 2023. The industry's cash-flow champions and start-ups with poor access to financing could both win through M&A. Based on our observations, Chinese biopharmaceutical companies are expected to expand overseas markets, purchase technology to upgrade product lines, or introduce new products into the Chinese market and enrich their product portfolios through M&A.
• Energy and electric industries look to promote transformation and upgrading through M&A. In 2023, to realize the adjustment of traditional energy structure and the transformation of new energy, it is expected that the energy and power industries will cut the assets that do not meet the goals of energy conservation, emission reduction, and low-carbon environmental protection.
From the perspective of ESG:
ESG plays an increasingly important role in M&A decision-making. In the early stage of M&A, investors pay more attention to the sustainability and social responsibility performance of target companies, and strengthen the examination of ESG. Some international funds are gradually adopting global ESG standards when investing in China. Assets with good ESG reputations may be valued higher when sold. Moreover, enhancing ESG performance has become the motivation for some enterprises to conduct M&A.
From the exit of PE/VC:
It is expected that the demand of financial investors to exit the invested project will be further released, and more high-quality targets will appear. The advantages of IPO over wholesale in terms of difficulty and valuation are weakened, so the proportion of wholesale in the exit of financial investors will further increase this year.
